{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\williamslaro\Documents\Research\Projects\Dissertation\TeX\Article Submissions\Legislative Success\Summer 2013\PSR&M\Final Version\Complete Replication\Williams PSRM.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}22 Dec 2014, 11:02:33
{txt}
{com}. 
. **********************************************************************************
. **** Statistical Backwards Induction
. **********************************************************************************
. set maxiter 100
{txt}
{com}. di "$S_TIME"
{res}11:02:33
{txt}
{com}. bootstrap r(surplus) r(minority) r(gparties) r(ciep_perc) r(ts_govt) r(ts_challenge) r(no_challenge) r(annual_ch_rgdppc_F) r(annual_ch_rgdppc_P) r(eff_par), reps(2200) dots: sbi, seed(648)
{txt}(running sbi on estimation sample)

Bootstrap replications ({res}2200{txt})
{hline 4}{c +}{hline 3} 1 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 2 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 3 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 4 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 5 
{err}x{txt}.....{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}......{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}..    50
....{err}xxx{txt}.{err}xxxx{txt}....{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.....{err}xx{txt}...{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}....{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}...   100
..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}....{err}xxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.......{err}xxxxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}   150
.{err}x{txt}.....{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.....{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}......{err}x{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}....{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..   200
..{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}..{err}xxxxx{txt}...{err}xxx{txt}...........{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}........{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.   250
{err}xxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}xxxx{txt}...{err}xx{txt}..{err}xxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.   300
.......{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}........{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}..{err}xxx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.   350
....{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}....{err}xx{txt}...{err}xx{txt}....{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}......{err}xx{txt}   400
.{err}x{txt}......{err}x{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}...{err}xx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}....{err}xxx{txt}...{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}..   450
{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.........{err}xx{txt}............{err}xxx{txt}......{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}....{err}xxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}   500
{err}xx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}.....{err}x{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}.....{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}xxx{txt}....{err}x{txt}.   550
.....{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}...{err}xx{txt}...{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}......{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}.....{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}....   600
......{err}xxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}.......{err}xxxxx{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}.......{err}x{txt}   650
.....{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}...............{err}xx{txt}.....   700
.{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}......{err}xxxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.....{err}xxxx{txt}......{err}xx{txt}   750
{err}xx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.....{err}xx{txt}....{err}x{txt}..   800
...{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}xxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}.......{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..   850
{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}xxxx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}...............{err}xxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}   900
...{err}x{txt}.............{err}xxx{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.....{err}xx{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.......   950
.{err}xx{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}......{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}..{err}xxx{txt}........{err}x{txt}.....{err}xx{txt}..{err}xxx{txt}  1000
..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.....{err}xx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}  1050
{err}xx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}......{err}xx{txt}...{err}xxx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}...{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.....  1100
....{err}x{txt}...{err}xxx{txt}.....{err}xx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}....{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}....{err}x{txt}...{err}xxxx{txt}...{err}x{txt}..  1150
{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.......{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}.....{err}x{txt}...  1200
.{err}xxxx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.......{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.......{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}  1250
{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}....{err}xx{txt}...{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}xxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}  1300
..{err}x{txt}.........{err}xxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}xxxxxx{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}.......  1350
{err}xx{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}xxx{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}......  1400
.....{err}xxxxx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}...{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.....{err}xx{txt}.  1450
{err}xxxxxxx{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}.{err}xxxx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}....{err}xxxxxxxx{txt}  1500
......{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}......{err}x{txt}..{err}xxx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.....{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}..  1550
...{err}xxxx{txt}.....{err}xx{txt}..{err}xxx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.....{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}....{err}xxx{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}  1600
{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.....{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.......  1650
{err}x{txt}.{err}xxxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.....{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xxxx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}..  1700
..{err}xx{txt}....{err}x{txt}....{err}xxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}xxxxx{txt}...{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}...{err}xxxx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.  1750
.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}...........{err}xxx{txt}...{err}xxx{txt}......{err}xxx{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}  1800
.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}.......{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.  1850
{err}x{txt}..{err}xxxxxx{txt}....{err}xxx{txt}...{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xxxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}........{err}xx{txt}..  1900
{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}........{err}x{txt}...{err}xxxx{txt}.....{err}xx{txt}...{err}x{txt}......{err}xxxxxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}...{err}x{txt}  1950
{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xxxx{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}......{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}....{err}xx{txt}...  2000
.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.....{err}x{txt}.......{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xx{txt}..{err}xxxx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}..  2050
{err}x{txt}..{err}xx{txt}....{err}xxxxxx{txt}..{err}x{txt}....{err}xx{txt}.{err}xxxx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}....{err}xx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}.  2100
.{err}x{txt}....{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.....{err}xxx{txt}.{err}xxxx{txt}....{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}xxxx{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}..  2150
.{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}....{err}xxx{txt}....{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}xxx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}..{err}xx{txt}.{err}xx{txt}.{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}..{err}x{txt}.{err}x{txt}...{err}xx{txt}...  2200
{res}
{txt}Bootstrap results{col 49}Number of obs{col 68}= {res}     9820
{txt}{col 49}Replications{col 68}= {res}     1333
{p2colset 7 17 21 2}{...}

{txt}{p2col :command:}sbi, seed(648) {p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_1:}{res:r(surplus)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_2:}{res:r(minority)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_3:}{res:r(gparties)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_4:}{res:r(ciep_perc)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_5:}{res:r(ts_govt)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_6:}{res:r(ts_challenge)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_7:}{res:r(no_challenge)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_8:}{res:r(annual_ch_rgdppc_F)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_9:}{res:r(annual_ch_rgdppc_P)}{p_end}
{p2colset 8 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_10:}{res:r(eff_par)}{p_end}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}   Observed{col 26}   Bootstrap{col 54}         Norm{col 67}al-based
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_bs_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3939174{col 26}{space 2}    .2585{col 37}{space 1}    1.52{col 46}{space 3}0.128{col 54}{space 4}-.1127333{col 67}{space 3} .9005681
{txt}{space 7}_bs_2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5819776{col 26}{space 2} .3286408{col 37}{space 1}    1.77{col 46}{space 3}0.077{col 54}{space 4}-.0621465{col 67}{space 3} 1.226102
{txt}{space 7}_bs_3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1238992{col 26}{space 2} .0499284{col 37}{space 1}   -2.48{col 46}{space 3}0.013{col 54}{space 4} -.221757{col 67}{space 3}-.0260414
{txt}{space 7}_bs_4 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.851351{col 26}{space 2} .1777606{col 37}{space 1}  -16.04{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.199755{col 67}{space 3}-2.502947
{txt}{space 7}_bs_5 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0588142{col 26}{space 2}  .005561{col 37}{space 1}  -10.58{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0697135{col 67}{space 3}-.0479149
{txt}{space 7}_bs_6 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0199644{col 26}{space 2} .0041686{col 37}{space 1}   -4.79{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0281346{col 67}{space 3}-.0117941
{txt}{space 7}_bs_7 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}   .01932{col 26}{space 2} .0034414{col 37}{space 1}    5.61{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0125749{col 67}{space 3} .0260651
{txt}{space 7}_bs_8 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1154662{col 26}{space 2} .0260383{col 37}{space 1}   -4.43{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1665004{col 67}{space 3}-.0644321
{txt}{space 7}_bs_9 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0545391{col 26}{space 2} .3132644{col 37}{space 1}    0.17{col 46}{space 3}0.862{col 54}{space 4}-.5594479{col 67}{space 3} .6685261
{txt}{space 6}_bs_10 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.940067{col 26}{space 2} .8938893{col 37}{space 1}   -2.17{col 46}{space 3}0.030{col 54}{space 4}-3.692058{col 67}{space 3}-.1880762
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 0 79}Note: one or more parameters could not be estimated in 867 bootstrap replicates; standard-error estimates include only complete replications.{p_end}

{com}. di "$S_TIME"
{res}11:09:38
{txt}
{com}. 
. **********************************************************************************
. **** Substantive Effects of Pr(Propose)
. **********************************************************************************
. use "Williams PSRM.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. qui logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode)
{txt}
{com}. predict pr_sbi 
{txt}(option pr assumed; Pr(no_conf_dummy))
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. sum pr_sbi if e(sample)

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 6}pr_sbi {c |}{res}       280    .0428571    .0975787   7.71e-07   .5353543
{txt}
{com}. local z = 1 - r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local y = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. 
. foreach i of varlist surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt ts_challenge no_challenge annual_ch_rgdppc {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.         gen z_`i' = (1 - pr_sbi) * `i'
{txt}  3{com}. {c )-}
{txt}(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. foreach j of varlist annual_ch_rgdppc eff_par {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.         gen y_`j' = pr_sbi * `j'
{txt}  3{com}. {c )-}
{txt}(173 missing values generated)
(184 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. set seed 648
{txt}
{com}. qui estsimp logit opp_conf_dummy z_surplus z_minority z_gparties z_ciep_perc z_ts_govt z_ts_challenge z_no_challenge z_annual_ch_rgdppc y_annual_ch_rgdppc y_eff_par, nocons iterate(500) genname(xxx)
{txt}
{com}. setx z_surplus 0*`z' z_minority 1*`z' z_gparties 1*`z' z_ciep_perc 1*`z' z_ts_govt 12*`z' z_ts_challenge 12*`z' z_no_challenge 3*`z' z_annual_ch_rgdppc 1*`z' y_annual_ch_rgdppc 1*`y' y_eff_par 2.4*`y'
{txt}
{com}. simqi, prval(1) genpr(prp)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res}  .031132     .0054813     .0217542    .0425459

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): prp
{txt}
{com}. quietly sum prp, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local base = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. 
. *** Now, produce the changes in predicted probabilities.
. * Surplus
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(z_surplus 0*`z' 1*`z') level(90)

{res}First Difference: z_surplus 0*.9571428571319213 1*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res} .0144184     .0084024     .0025768    .0295681
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(z_surplus 0*`z' 1*`z') level(95)

{res}First Difference: z_surplus 0*.9571428571319213 1*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res} .0144184     .0084024     .0008275    .0331533

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}46.313555
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Minority
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(z_minority 0*`z' 1*`z') level(90)

{res}First Difference: z_minority 0*.9571428571319213 1*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res} .0131145     .0051491     .0047844     .022127
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(z_minority 0*`z' 1*`z') level(95)

{res}First Difference: z_minority 0*.9571428571319213 1*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res} .0131145     .0051491      .004011    .0235848

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}42.125377
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Government parties
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(z_gparties 1*`z' 4*`z') level(90)

{res}First Difference: z_gparties 1*.9571428571319213 4*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res}-.0090599     .0033265    -.0147064   -.0039653
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(z_gparties 1*`z' 4*`z') level(95)

{res}First Difference: z_gparties 1*.9571428571319213 4*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res}-.0090599     .0033265    -.0162152   -.0031758

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}-29.101514
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Time Left in CIEP
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(z_ciep_perc 1*`z' .5*`z') level(90)

{res}First Difference: z_ciep_perc 1*.9571428571319213 .5*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res} .0801756     .0112181     .0628851    .0994756
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(z_ciep_perc 1*`z' .5*`z') level(95)

{res}First Difference: z_ciep_perc 1*.9571428571319213 .5*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res} .0801756     .0112181     .0600122    .1039835

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}257.53418
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Tenure
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(z_ts_govt 12*`z' 24*`z') level(90)

{res}First Difference: z_ts_govt 12*.9571428571319213 24*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res}-.0149798     .0026934    -.0197138   -.0108393
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(z_ts_govt 12*`z' 24*`z') level(95)

{res}First Difference: z_ts_govt 12*.9571428571319213 24*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res}-.0149798     .0026934    -.0207028   -.0103485

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}-48.11701
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Time Since Challenge
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(z_ts_challenge 12*`z' 36*`z') level(90)

{res}First Difference: z_ts_challenge 12*.9571428571319213 36*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res} -.011311     .0023577    -.0154245   -.0077477
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(z_ts_challenge 12*`z' 36*`z') level(95)

{res}First Difference: z_ts_challenge 12*.9571428571319213 36*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res} -.011311     .0023577    -.0161674   -.0072631

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}-36.332382
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Number of Previous Challenges
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(z_no_challenge 3*`z' 1*`z') level(90)

{res}First Difference: z_no_challenge 3*.9571428571319213 1*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res}-.0010952     .0002504    -.0015272   -.0007065
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(z_no_challenge 3*`z' 1*`z') level(95)

{res}First Difference: z_no_challenge 3*.9571428571319213 1*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res}-.0010952     .0002504    -.0016267   -.0006527

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}-3.5178469
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Real GDP Per Capita Growth: Fail
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(z_annual_ch_rgdppc 1*`z' 2.5*`z') level(90)

{res}First Difference: z_annual_ch_rgdppc 1*.9571428571319213 2.5*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res}-.0046512      .001228    -.0068189   -.0028355
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(z_annual_ch_rgdppc 1*`z' 2.5*`z') level(95)

{res}First Difference: z_annual_ch_rgdppc 1*.9571428571319213 2.5*.9571428571319213

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res}-.0046512      .001228     -.007428   -.0025684

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}-14.940355
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Real GDP Per Capita Growth: Pass
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(y_annual_ch_rgdppc 1*`y' 2.5*`y') level(90)

{res}First Difference: y_annual_ch_rgdppc 1*.0428571428680787 2.5*.0428571428680787

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res} .0001335     .0005073    -.0006826    .0009668
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(y_annual_ch_rgdppc 1*`y' 2.5*`y') level(95)

{res}First Difference: y_annual_ch_rgdppc 1*.0428571428680787 2.5*.0428571428680787

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res} .0001335     .0005073    -.0008293     .001173

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}.42882523
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Effective Parliamentary Parties
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(y_eff_par 2.4*`y' 4*`y') level(90)

{res}First Difference: y_eff_par 2.4*.0428571428680787 4*.0428571428680787

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res}-.0037923     .0010843    -.0057371   -.0021808
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(y_eff_par 2.4*`y' 4*`y') level(95)

{res}First Difference: y_eff_par 2.4*.0428571428680787 4*.0428571428680787

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(opp_co~y = 1) |  {res}-.0037923     .0010843    -.0062021    -.001934

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}-12.181359
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. **********************************************************************************
. **** Substantive Effects of Pr(Accept)
. **********************************************************************************
. use "Williams PSRM.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. quietly logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode)
{txt}
{com}. qui sum ciep_perc if e(sample)
{txt}
{com}. local s_ciep = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local e_ciep = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. 
. qui sum return_elect if e(sample)
{txt}
{com}. local s_ret = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local e_ret = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. 
. qui sum annual_ch_rgdppc if e(sample)
{txt}
{com}. local s_gdp = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. local e_gdp = r(mean) + r(sd)
{txt}
{com}. 
. set seed 648
{txt}
{com}. estsimp logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode)

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-49.537698
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-45.107038
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-33.741138
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-31.545426
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-31.029664
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990716
{txt}Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990415

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}       280
                                                  {txt}Wald chi2({res}7{txt})    = {res}     43.74
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990415                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.3744

                                 {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}19{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
no_conf_du~y {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
     surplus {c |}  {res} 3.968157   1.857557     2.14   0.033     .3274129    7.608902
    {txt}minority {c |}  {res} 4.611374   1.527566     3.02   0.003       1.6174    7.605348
    {txt}gparties {c |}  {res}-1.263316   .4152607    -3.04   0.002    -2.077212   -.4494203
   {txt}ciep_perc {c |}  {res}-2.377267   1.127967    -2.11   0.035    -4.588041   -.1664927
     {txt}ts_govt {c |}  {res}-.0047198   .0181593    -0.26   0.795    -.0403113    .0308717
{txt}annual_ch_~c {c |}  {res} .3326584   .2160196     1.54   0.124    -.0907323    .7560491
{txt}return_elect {c |}  {res} 7.369546   3.407474     2.16   0.031     .6910199    14.04807
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res}-7.958958   3.167976    -2.51   0.012    -14.16808   -1.749839
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 12% 25% 37% 50% 62% 75% 87% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 b6 b7 b8
{txt}
{com}. setx surplus 0 minority 1 gparties 1 ts_govt mean return_elect .5 ciep_perc 1
{txt}
{com}. simqi, prval(1) genpr(pra)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(no_con~y=1) |  {res} .0626082     .0824713      .002844    .2724146

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): pra
{txt}
{com}. qui sum pra, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local base = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Surplus
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(surplus 0 1) level(90)

{res}First Difference: surplus 0 1

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res} .5407861     .2782137     .0576393     .915523
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(surplus 0 1) level(95)

{res}First Difference: surplus 0 1

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res} .5407861     .2782137     .0130942     .940398

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}863.76297
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Minority
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(minority 0 1) level(90)

{res}First Difference: minority 0 1

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res} .0575893     .0716123     .0043336     .199291
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(minority 0 1) level(95)

{res}First Difference: minority 0 1

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res} .0575893     .0716123     .0027518    .2502869

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}91.983709
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Government parties
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(gparties 1 4) level(90)

{res}First Difference: gparties 1 4

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res}-.0529461     .0582505    -.1824823   -.0043471
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(gparties 1 4) level(95)

{res}First Difference: gparties 1 4

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res}-.0529461     .0582505     -.211662   -.0026986

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}-84.567348
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * CIEP
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(ciep_perc 1.0 .5) level(90)

{res}First Difference: ciep_perc 1.0 .5

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res} .0720185     .0560799     .0109737    .1852974
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(ciep_perc 1.0 .5) level(95)

{res}First Difference: ciep_perc 1.0 .5

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res} .0720185     .0560799     .0043243    .2111536

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}115.03048
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Returnability 
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(return_elect .50 .85) level(90)

{res}First Difference: return_elect .50 .85

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res} .2558704     .1101743     .0968668    .4351609
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(return_elect .50 .85) level(95)

{res}First Difference: return_elect .50 .85

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res} .2558704     .1101743     .0394222    .4619574

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}408.68535
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. * GDP
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(annual_ch_rgdppc 2 5) level(90)

{res}First Difference: annual_ch_rgdppc 2 5

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res} .0763768     .0545254    -.0146628    .1582436
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(annual_ch_rgdppc 2 5) level(95)

{res}First Difference: annual_ch_rgdppc 2 5

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res} .0763768     .0545254    -.0456654    .1806932

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}121.99181
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. simqi, fd(prval(1)) changex(annual_ch_rgdppc `s_gdp' `e_gdp') level(90)

{res}First Difference: annual_ch_rgdppc 1.972310029941478 4.728277837119455

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [90% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res}  .066256     .0476894    -.0135064    .1353048
{txt}
{com}. simqi, fd(prval(1) genpr(fd)) changex(annual_ch_rgdppc `s_gdp' `e_gdp') level(95)

{res}First Difference: annual_ch_rgdppc 1.972310029941478 4.728277837119455

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
         dPr(no_con~y = 1) |  {res}  .066256     .0476894    -.0423017    .1556717

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): fd
{txt}
{com}. qui sum fd, meanonly
{txt}
{com}. local fd = r(mean)
{txt}
{com}. di 100*(`fd'/`base')
{res}105.82642
{txt}
{com}. drop fd
{txt}
{com}. 
. *********************************************************************
. **** Figure 4: Probability of opposition proposing a no-confidence motion across government tenure for three different values of probability of accept
. *********************************************************************
. use "Williams PSRM.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-49.537698}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-45.107038}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-32.758575}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-31.116616}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-30.990856}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-30.990415}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-30.990415}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       280
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}7{txt}){col 67}= {res}     43.73
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990415{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.3744

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:19} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}no_conf_du~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}surplus {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.968157{col 26}{space 2} 1.857618{col 37}{space 1}    2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.033{col 54}{space 4} .3272935{col 67}{space 3} 7.609021
{txt}{space 4}minority {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 4.611374{col 26}{space 2} 1.527628{col 37}{space 1}    3.02{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} 1.617277{col 67}{space 3} 7.605471
{txt}{space 4}gparties {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.263316{col 26}{space 2} .4153191{col 37}{space 1}   -3.04{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-2.077327{col 67}{space 3}-.4493058
{txt}{space 3}ciep_perc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.377267{col 26}{space 2} 1.128086{col 37}{space 1}   -2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.035{col 54}{space 4}-4.588275{col 67}{space 3}-.1662586
{txt}{space 5}ts_govt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0047198{col 26}{space 2} .0181598{col 37}{space 1}   -0.26{col 46}{space 3}0.795{col 54}{space 4}-.0403123{col 67}{space 3} .0308727
{txt}annual_ch_~c {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3326584{col 26}{space 2} .2160373{col 37}{space 1}    1.54{col 46}{space 3}0.124{col 54}{space 4}-.0907669{col 67}{space 3} .7560837
{txt}return_elect {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 7.369546{col 26}{space 2} 3.407776{col 37}{space 1}    2.16{col 46}{space 3}0.031{col 54}{space 4} .6904274{col 67}{space 3} 14.04867
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-7.958958{col 26}{space 2} 3.168157{col 37}{space 1}   -2.51{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4}-14.16843{col 67}{space 3}-1.749484
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. predict pr_sbi 
{txt}(option pr assumed; Pr(no_conf_dummy))
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. qui foreach i of varlist surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt ts_challenge no_challenge annual_ch_rgdppc {c -(}
{txt}
{com}. 
. qui foreach j of varlist annual_ch_rgdppc eff_par {c -(}
{txt}
{com}. 
. set seed 648
{txt}
{com}. estsimp logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode) genname(zzz)

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-49.537698
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-45.107038
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-33.741138
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-31.545426
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-31.029664
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990716
{txt}Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990415

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}       280
                                                  {txt}Wald chi2({res}7{txt})    = {res}     43.74
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990415                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.3744

                                 {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}19{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
no_conf_du~y {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
     surplus {c |}  {res} 3.968157   1.857557     2.14   0.033     .3274129    7.608902
    {txt}minority {c |}  {res} 4.611374   1.527566     3.02   0.003       1.6174    7.605348
    {txt}gparties {c |}  {res}-1.263316   .4152607    -3.04   0.002    -2.077212   -.4494203
   {txt}ciep_perc {c |}  {res}-2.377267   1.127967    -2.11   0.035    -4.588041   -.1664927
     {txt}ts_govt {c |}  {res}-.0047198   .0181593    -0.26   0.795    -.0403113    .0308717
{txt}annual_ch_~c {c |}  {res} .3326584   .2160196     1.54   0.124    -.0907323    .7560491
{txt}return_elect {c |}  {res} 7.369546   3.407474     2.16   0.031     .6910199    14.04807
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res}-7.958958   3.167976    -2.51   0.012    -14.16808   -1.749839
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 12% 25% 37% 50% 62% 75% 87% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : zzz1 zzz2 zzz3 zzz4 zzz5 zzz6 zzz7 zzz8
{txt}
{com}. setx mean
{txt}
{com}. simqi, prval(1) genpr(base)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(no_con~y=1) |  {res} .0055553      .012112     .0001793    .0274744

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): base
{txt}
{com}. 
. set seed 648
{txt}
{com}. qui estsimp logit opp_conf_dummy z_surplus z_minority z_gparties z_ciep_perc z_ts_govt z_ts_challenge z_no_challenge z_annual_ch_rgdppc y_annual_ch_rgdppc y_eff_par, nocons iterate(500) genname(xxx)
{txt}
{com}. 
. tempfile pr_best pr_okay pr_worst
{txt}
{com}. local base = (1-.5)
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         gen b = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen u = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen l = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen vectaxis = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         local b = 1
{txt}
{com}.         qui forvalues i = 0(1)48 {c -(}
{txt}
{com}.         keep vectaxis b l u
{txt}
{com}.         keep if !missing(vectaxis)
{txt}(9955 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         save `pr_best', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000god.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000god.tmp saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. local base = (1-.25)
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         gen b = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen u = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen l = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen vectaxis = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         local b = 1
{txt}
{com}.         qui forvalues i = 0(1)48 {c -(}
{txt}
{com}.         keep vectaxis b l u
{txt}
{com}.         keep if !missing(vectaxis)
{txt}(9955 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         save `pr_okay', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000goe.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000goe.tmp saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. local base = (1-.05)
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         gen b = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen u = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen l = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen vectaxis = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         local b = 1
{txt}
{com}.         qui forvalues i = 0(1)48 {c -(}
{txt}
{com}.         keep vectaxis b l u
{txt}
{com}.         keep if !missing(vectaxis)
{txt}(9955 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         save `pr_worst', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gof.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gof.tmp saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         use `pr_best', clear
{txt}
{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         rename b b_best
{txt}
{com}.         rename u u_best
{txt}
{com}.         rename l l_best
{txt}
{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         merge vectaxis using `pr_okay'
{txt}{p}
(note: you are using old
{bf:merge} syntax; see
{bf:{help merge:[D] merge}} for new syntax)
{p_end}

{com}.         drop _merge
{txt}
{com}.         rename b b_okay
{txt}
{com}.         rename u u_okay
{txt}
{com}.         rename l l_okay
{txt}
{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         merge vectaxis using `pr_worst'
{txt}{p}
(note: you are using old
{bf:merge} syntax; see
{bf:{help merge:[D] merge}} for new syntax)
{p_end}

{com}.         drop _merge
{txt}
{com}.         rename b b_worst
{txt}
{com}.         rename u u_worst
{txt}
{com}.         rename l l_worst
{txt}
{com}.         save pr_tenure.dta, replace
{txt}file pr_tenure.dta saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *********************************************************************
. **** Figure 5: Probability of opposition proposing a no-confidence motion across the electoral cycle for three different values of probability of accept
. *********************************************************************
. use "Williams PSRM.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-49.537698}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-45.107038}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-32.758575}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-31.116616}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-30.990856}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-30.990415}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-30.990415}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       280
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}7{txt}){col 67}= {res}     43.73
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990415{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.3744

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:19} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}no_conf_du~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}surplus {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.968157{col 26}{space 2} 1.857618{col 37}{space 1}    2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.033{col 54}{space 4} .3272935{col 67}{space 3} 7.609021
{txt}{space 4}minority {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 4.611374{col 26}{space 2} 1.527628{col 37}{space 1}    3.02{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} 1.617277{col 67}{space 3} 7.605471
{txt}{space 4}gparties {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.263316{col 26}{space 2} .4153191{col 37}{space 1}   -3.04{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-2.077327{col 67}{space 3}-.4493058
{txt}{space 3}ciep_perc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.377267{col 26}{space 2} 1.128086{col 37}{space 1}   -2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.035{col 54}{space 4}-4.588275{col 67}{space 3}-.1662586
{txt}{space 5}ts_govt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0047198{col 26}{space 2} .0181598{col 37}{space 1}   -0.26{col 46}{space 3}0.795{col 54}{space 4}-.0403123{col 67}{space 3} .0308727
{txt}annual_ch_~c {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3326584{col 26}{space 2} .2160373{col 37}{space 1}    1.54{col 46}{space 3}0.124{col 54}{space 4}-.0907669{col 67}{space 3} .7560837
{txt}return_elect {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 7.369546{col 26}{space 2} 3.407776{col 37}{space 1}    2.16{col 46}{space 3}0.031{col 54}{space 4} .6904274{col 67}{space 3} 14.04867
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-7.958958{col 26}{space 2} 3.168157{col 37}{space 1}   -2.51{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4}-14.16843{col 67}{space 3}-1.749484
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. predict pr_sbi 
{txt}(option pr assumed; Pr(no_conf_dummy))
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. foreach i of varlist surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt ts_challenge no_challenge annual_ch_rgdppc {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.         gen z_`i' = (1 - pr_sbi) * `i'
{txt}  3{com}. {c )-}
{txt}(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. foreach j of varlist annual_ch_rgdppc eff_par {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.         gen y_`j' = pr_sbi * `j'
{txt}  3{com}. {c )-}
{txt}(173 missing values generated)
(184 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. set seed 648
{txt}
{com}. estsimp logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode) genname(zzz)

{txt}Iteration 0:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-49.537698
{txt}Iteration 1:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-45.107038
{txt}Iteration 2:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-33.741138
{txt}Iteration 3:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-31.545426
{txt}Iteration 4:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-31.029664
{txt}Iteration 5:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990716
{txt}Iteration 6:   log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990415

{txt}Logistic regression                               Number of obs   = {res}       280
                                                  {txt}Wald chi2({res}7{txt})    = {res}     43.74
                                                  {txt}Prob > chi2     = {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990415                 {txt}Pseudo R2       = {res}    0.3744

                                 {txt}(Std. Err. adjusted for {res}19{txt} clusters in ccode)
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 64}
             {c |}               Robust
no_conf_du~y {c |}      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 64}
     surplus {c |}  {res} 3.968157   1.857557     2.14   0.033     .3274129    7.608902
    {txt}minority {c |}  {res} 4.611374   1.527566     3.02   0.003       1.6174    7.605348
    {txt}gparties {c |}  {res}-1.263316   .4152607    -3.04   0.002    -2.077212   -.4494203
   {txt}ciep_perc {c |}  {res}-2.377267   1.127967    -2.11   0.035    -4.588041   -.1664927
     {txt}ts_govt {c |}  {res}-.0047198   .0181593    -0.26   0.795    -.0403113    .0308717
{txt}annual_ch_~c {c |}  {res} .3326584   .2160196     1.54   0.124    -.0907323    .7560491
{txt}return_elect {c |}  {res} 7.369546   3.407474     2.16   0.031     .6910199    14.04807
       {txt}_cons {c |}  {res}-7.958958   3.167976    -2.51   0.012    -14.16808   -1.749839
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 64}

{res}Simulating main parameters.  Please wait....
% of simulations completed: 12% 25% 37% 50% 62% 75% 87% 100% 

Number of simulations  : 1000
Names of new variables : zzz1 zzz2 zzz3 zzz4 zzz5 zzz6 zzz7 zzz8
{txt}
{com}. setx mean
{txt}
{com}. simqi, prval(1) genpr(base)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(no_con~y=1) |  {res} .0055553      .012112     .0001793    .0274744

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): base
{txt}
{com}. 
. set seed 648
{txt}
{com}. qui estsimp logit opp_conf_dummy z_surplus z_minority z_gparties z_ciep_perc z_ts_govt z_ts_challenge z_no_challenge z_annual_ch_rgdppc y_annual_ch_rgdppc y_eff_par, nocons iterate(500) genname(xxx)
{txt}
{com}. 
. tempfile pr_best pr_okay pr_worst
{txt}
{com}. local base = (1-.5)
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         gen b = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen u = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen l = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen vectaxis = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         local b = 1
{txt}
{com}.         forvalues i = 0(.1)1 {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.                 setx mean
{txt}  3{com}.                 setx z_ciep_perc `i'*`base'
{txt}  4{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(x)
{txt}  5{com}.                 sum x, meanonly
{txt}  6{com}.                 replace b = `r(mean)' in `b'
{txt}  7{com}.                 _pctile x, p(2.5,97.5)
{txt}  8{com}.                 replace l = r(r1) in `b'
{txt}  9{com}.                 replace u = r(r2) in `b'
{txt} 10{com}.                 replace vectaxis = `i' in `b'
{txt} 11{com}.                 capture drop x
{txt} 12{com}.                 local b = `b' + 1
{txt} 13{com}.         {c )-}

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0658375     .0085171     .0502374    .0839648

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0575619     .0072388     .0442567    .0731671

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0502717     .0061475     .0391171    .0636599

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0438633     .0052211     .0344637    .0549206

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0382404     .0044383     .0303212    .0475492

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0333147     .0037797      .026531    .0409965

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0290058     .0032274     .0232174    .0355963

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res}  .025241     .0027655     .0202541     .030872

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res}  .021955     .0023798     .0176348    .0267888

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0190896     .0020577     .0153365    .0233578

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0165929     .0017886     .0133784    .0202285

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

{com}.         keep vectaxis b l u
{txt}
{com}.         keep if !missing(vectaxis)
{txt}(9993 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         save `pr_best', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gok.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gok.tmp saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. local base = (1-.25)
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         gen b = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen u = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen l = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen vectaxis = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         local b = 1
{txt}
{com}.         forvalues i = 0(.1)1 {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.                 setx mean
{txt}  3{com}.                 setx z_ciep_perc `i'*`base'
{txt}  4{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(x)
{txt}  5{com}.                 sum x, meanonly
{txt}  6{com}.                 replace b = `r(mean)' in `b'
{txt}  7{com}.                 _pctile x, p(2.5,97.5)
{txt}  8{com}.                 replace l = r(r1) in `b'
{txt}  9{com}.                 replace u = r(r2) in `b'
{txt} 10{com}.                 replace vectaxis = `i' in `b'
{txt} 11{com}.                 capture drop x
{txt} 12{com}.                 local b = `b' + 1
{txt} 13{com}.         {c )-}

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0658375     .0085171     .0502374    .0839648

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0538003     .0066712     .0416349    .0682385

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0438633     .0052211     .0344637    .0549206

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0356956     .0040946     .0283357    .0441887

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0290058     .0032274     .0232174    .0355963

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res}  .023542     .0025639     .0188934    .0287153

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0190896     .0020577     .0153365    .0233578

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0154682     .0016709     .0125179    .0188578

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0125268     .0013733     .0101096    .0154541

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0101405     .0011417     .0081808    .0126326

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0082063     .0009586     .0065756    .0103038

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

{com}.         keep vectaxis b l u
{txt}
{com}.         keep if !missing(vectaxis)
{txt}(9993 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         save `pr_okay', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gol.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gol.tmp saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. local base = (1-.05)
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         gen b = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen u = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen l = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen vectaxis = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         local b = 1
{txt}
{com}.         forvalues i = 0(.1)1 {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.                 setx mean
{txt}  3{com}.                 setx z_ciep_perc `i'*`base'
{txt}  4{com}.                 simqi, prval(1) genpr(x)
{txt}  5{com}.                 sum x, meanonly
{txt}  6{com}.                 replace b = `r(mean)' in `b'
{txt}  7{com}.                 _pctile x, p(2.5,97.5)
{txt}  8{com}.                 replace l = r(r1) in `b'
{txt}  9{com}.                 replace u = r(r2) in `b'
{txt} 10{com}.                 replace vectaxis = `i' in `b'
{txt} 11{com}.                 capture drop x
{txt} 12{com}.                 local b = `b' + 1
{txt} 13{com}.         {c )-}

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0658375     .0085171     .0502374    .0839648

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0509594     .0062489     .0396087    .0645593

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0393065     .0045843     .0311144    .0489701

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0302382     .0033829     .0241916    .0371471

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0232158     .0025258      .018635    .0283113

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0177982     .0019172     .0143223    .0217275

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0136303     .0014833     .0110089    .0167301

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0104305     .0011695     .0084156    .0129777

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0079778     .0009372     .0063835    .0100333

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0060998     .0007603     .0047853    .0078204

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(opp_co~y=1) |  {res} .0046629     .0006218     .0036015    .0060674

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): x
{txt}(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)
(1 real change made)

{com}.         keep vectaxis b l u
{txt}
{com}.         keep if !missing(vectaxis)
{txt}(9993 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         save `pr_worst', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gom.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gom.tmp saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         use `pr_best', clear
{txt}
{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         rename b b_best
{txt}
{com}.         rename u u_best
{txt}
{com}.         rename l l_best
{txt}
{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         merge vectaxis using `pr_okay'
{txt}{p}
(note: you are using old
{bf:merge} syntax; see
{bf:{help merge:[D] merge}} for new syntax)
{p_end}

{com}.         drop _merge
{txt}
{com}.         rename b b_okay
{txt}
{com}.         rename u u_okay
{txt}
{com}.         rename l l_okay
{txt}
{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         merge vectaxis using `pr_worst'
{txt}{p}
(note: you are using old
{bf:merge} syntax; see
{bf:{help merge:[D] merge}} for new syntax)
{p_end}

{com}.         drop _merge
{txt}
{com}.         rename b b_worst
{txt}
{com}.         rename u u_worst
{txt}
{com}.         rename l l_worst
{txt}
{com}.         save pr_ciep.dta, replace
{txt}file pr_ciep.dta saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. ************************************************************************************
. *** Figure 6: Probability of opposition proposing a NCM for one government versus three governments
. ************************************************************************************
. use "Williams PSRM.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. qui logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode)
{txt}
{com}. predict pr_sbi 
{txt}(option pr assumed; Pr(no_conf_dummy))
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. qui foreach i of varlist surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt ts_challenge no_challenge annual_ch_rgdppc {c -(}
{txt}
{com}. 
. qui foreach j of varlist annual_ch_rgdppc eff_par {c -(}
{txt}
{com}. 
. *** First scenario (government starts at ciep = 1)
. set seed 648
{txt}
{com}. qui estsimp logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode) genname(zzz)
{txt}
{com}. setx mean
{txt}
{com}. simqi, prval(1) genpr(base)

{txt}      Quantity of Interest |     Mean       Std. Err.    [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+--------------------------------------------------
            Pr(no_con~y=1) |  {res} .0055553      .012112     .0001793    .0274744

Simqi generated the following new variable(s): base
{txt}
{com}. 
. set seed 648
{txt}
{com}. qui estsimp logit opp_conf_dummy z_surplus z_minority z_gparties z_ciep_perc z_ts_govt z_ts_challenge z_no_challenge z_annual_ch_rgdppc y_annual_ch_rgdppc y_eff_par, nocons iterate(500) genname(xxx)
{txt}
{com}. 
. tempfile pr_okay pr_1_govt
{txt}
{com}. 
. local base = (1-.25)
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         gen b = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen u = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen l = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen vectaxis = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen vectaxis_2 = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         local b = 1
{txt}
{com}.         local it = 0
{txt}
{com}.         qui forvalues i = 0(.01)1 {c -(}
{txt}
{com}.         keep vectaxis vectaxis_2 b l u
{txt}
{com}.         keep if !missing(vectaxis)
{txt}(9904 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         save `pr_okay', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gor.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gor.tmp saved

{com}.         save `pr_1_govt', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gos.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gos.tmp saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}.         
. *** Next Scenario (new governments at 1, .6, and .4)
. tempfile pr_g1 pr_g2 pr_g3
{txt}
{com}. 
. local base = (1-.25)
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         gen b = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen u = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen l = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen govt = 3
{txt}
{com}.         gen vectaxis = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen vectaxis_2 = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         local b = 1
{txt}
{com}.         local it = 0
{txt}
{com}.         qui forvalues i = .3(-.01)0 {c -(}
{txt}
{com}.         keep vectaxis vectaxis_2 b l u govt
{txt}
{com}.         keep if !missing(vectaxis)
{txt}(9974 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         save `pr_g3', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gow.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gow.tmp saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         gen b = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen u = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen l = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen govt = 2
{txt}
{com}.         gen vectaxis = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen vectaxis_2 = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         local b = 1
{txt}
{com}.         local it = 0
{txt}
{com}.         qui forvalues i = .5(-.01).31 {c -(}
{txt}
{com}.         keep vectaxis vectaxis_2 b l u govt
{txt}
{com}.         keep if !missing(vectaxis)
{txt}(9985 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         save `pr_g2', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gov.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gov.tmp saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}.         
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         gen b = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen u = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen l = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen govt = 1
{txt}
{com}.         gen vectaxis = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         gen vectaxis_2 = .
{txt}(10004 missing values generated)

{com}.         local b = 1
{txt}
{com}.         local it = 0
{txt}
{com}.         qui forvalues i = 1(-.01).51 {c -(}
{txt}
{com}.         keep vectaxis vectaxis_2 b l u govt
{txt}
{com}.         keep if !missing(vectaxis)
{txt}(9955 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         save `pr_g1', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gou.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gou.tmp saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         use `pr_g1', clear
{txt}
{com}.         append using `pr_g2'
{txt}
{com}.         append using `pr_g3'
{txt}
{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         tempfile pr_3_govt
{txt}
{com}.         save `pr_3_govt', replace
{txt}(note: file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gp3.tmp not found)
file C:\Users\WILLIA~1\AppData\Local\Temp\ST_00000gp3.tmp saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         use `pr_1_govt', clear
{txt}
{com}.         rename b b_1
{txt}
{com}.         rename u u_1
{txt}
{com}.         rename l l_1
{txt}
{com}.         sort vectaxis
{txt}
{com}.         merge vectaxis using `pr_3_govt'
{txt}{p}
(note: you are using old
{bf:merge} syntax; see
{bf:{help merge:[D] merge}} for new syntax)
{p_end}

{com}.         tab _merge

     {txt}_merge {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          1 {c |}{res}          3        2.97        2.97
{txt}          2 {c |}{res}          1        0.99        3.96
{txt}          3 {c |}{res}         97       96.04      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        101      100.00
{txt}
{com}.         drop if inlist(_merge, 1,2)
{txt}(4 observations deleted)

{com}.         drop _merge
{txt}
{com}.         save pr.dta, replace
{txt}file pr.dta saved

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. **********************************************************************************
. **** Descriptive Statistics
. **********************************************************************************
. use "Williams PSRM.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Accept model
. qui logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode)
{txt}
{com}. tab no_conf_dummy if e(sample)

     {txt}Dummy: {c |}
    whether {c |}
 successful {c |}
        NCM {c |}
occurred in {c |}
 that month {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}        268       95.71       95.71
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}         12        4.29      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        280      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab minority if e(sample)

  {txt}Dummy for {c |}
   minority {c |}
 government {c |}
 [WKB + SW] {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}        219       78.21       78.21
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}         61       21.79      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        280      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab surplus if e(sample)

  {txt}Dummy for {c |}
    surplus {c |}
  coalition {c |}
 [WKB + SW] {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}        196       70.00       70.00
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}         84       30.00      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        280      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab gparties if e(sample)

  {txt}Number of {c |}
 government {c |}
    parties {c |}
 [WKB + SW] {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          1 {c |}{res}         86       30.71       30.71
{txt}          2 {c |}{res}         55       19.64       50.36
{txt}          3 {c |}{res}         30       10.71       61.07
{txt}          4 {c |}{res}         40       14.29       75.36
{txt}          5 {c |}{res}         37       13.21       88.57
{txt}          6 {c |}{res}          6        2.14       90.71
{txt}          7 {c |}{res}         14        5.00       95.71
{txt}          8 {c |}{res}          1        0.36       96.07
{txt}          9 {c |}{res}         11        3.93      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        280      100.00
{txt}
{com}. sum gparties ciep_perc ts_govt return_elect surplus minority annual_ch_rgdppc if e(sample)

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 4}gparties {c |}{res}       280    3.114286    2.143878          1          9
{txt}{space 3}ciep_perc {c |}{res}       280     .577624    .2535539          0          1
{txt}{space 5}ts_govt {c |}{res}       280    15.56786    11.25474          1         52
{txt}return_elect {c |}{res}       280    .6007067    .1698958        .15   .9444444
{txt}{space 5}surplus {c |}{res}       280          .3    .4590781          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 4}minority {c |}{res}       280    .2178571    .4135289          0          1
{txt}annual_ch_~c {c |}{res}       280     1.97231    2.755968  -8.822525   10.31199
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         keep if e(sample)
{txt}(9724 observations deleted)

{com}.         collapse (sum) success = no_conf_dummy, by(abbrev)
{txt}
{com}.         sort abbrev
{txt}
{com}.         list abbrev success
{txt}
     {c TLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c TRC}
     {c |} {res}abbrev   success {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
  1. {c |} {res}   AUL         1 {txt}{c |}
  2. {c |} {res}   AUS         0 {txt}{c |}
  3. {c |} {res}   BEL         0 {txt}{c |}
  4. {c |} {res}   CAN         4 {txt}{c |}
  5. {c |} {res}   DEN         0 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
  6. {c |} {res}   FIN         0 {txt}{c |}
  7. {c |} {res}   FRN         1 {txt}{c |}
  8. {c |} {res}   GMY         0 {txt}{c |}
  9. {c |} {res}   GRC         0 {txt}{c |}
 10. {c |} {res}   ICE         0 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 11. {c |} {res}   IRE         1 {txt}{c |}
 12. {c |} {res}   ISR         1 {txt}{c |}
 13. {c |} {res}   ITA         0 {txt}{c |}
 14. {c |} {res}   JPN         2 {txt}{c |}
 15. {c |} {res}   NEW         0 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 16. {c |} {res}   NTH         0 {txt}{c |}
 17. {c |} {res}   POR         1 {txt}{c |}
 18. {c |} {res}   SPN         0 {txt}{c |}
 19. {c |} {res}   UKG         1 {txt}{c |}
     {c BLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c BRC}

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         keep if e(sample)
{txt}(9724 observations deleted)

{com}.         collapse (count) ncm = opp_conf_dummy, by(abbrev)
{txt}
{com}.         sort abbrev
{txt}
{com}.         list abbrev ncm
{txt}
     {c TLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 5}{c TRC}
     {c |} {res}abbrev   ncm {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 5}{c RT}
  1. {c |} {res}   AUL    28 {txt}{c |}
  2. {c |} {res}   AUS     7 {txt}{c |}
  3. {c |} {res}   BEL     4 {txt}{c |}
  4. {c |} {res}   CAN    11 {txt}{c |}
  5. {c |} {res}   DEN     4 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 5}{c RT}
  6. {c |} {res}   FIN    30 {txt}{c |}
  7. {c |} {res}   FRN    19 {txt}{c |}
  8. {c |} {res}   GMY     6 {txt}{c |}
  9. {c |} {res}   GRC     9 {txt}{c |}
 10. {c |} {res}   ICE     1 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 5}{c RT}
 11. {c |} {res}   IRE    18 {txt}{c |}
 12. {c |} {res}   ISR    75 {txt}{c |}
 13. {c |} {res}   ITA    12 {txt}{c |}
 14. {c |} {res}   JPN    19 {txt}{c |}
 15. {c |} {res}   NEW     8 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 5}{c RT}
 16. {c |} {res}   NTH     3 {txt}{c |}
 17. {c |} {res}   POR     9 {txt}{c |}
 18. {c |} {res}   SPN     3 {txt}{c |}
 19. {c |} {res}   UKG    14 {txt}{c |}
     {c BLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 5}{c BRC}

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         sort abbrev
{txt}
{com}.         list ccode ts surplus minority gparties ts_govt ciep_perc if no_conf_dummy==1 & e(sample)

       {txt}{c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
  327. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}     Australia {txt}{c |} {res}1975m11 {txt}{c |} {res}      0 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}       2 {txt}{c |} {res}     17 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}.5277778                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

       {c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
 1780. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}        Canada {txt}{c |} {res} 1963m2 {txt}{c |} {res}      0 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}      5 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}.8833333                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

       {c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
 1951. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}        Canada {txt}{c |} {res}1979m12 {txt}{c |} {res}      0 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}      6 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}      .9                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

       {c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
 2145. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}        Canada {txt}{c |} {res} 1974m5 {txt}{c |} {res}      0 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}     18 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}      .7                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

       {c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
 2189. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}        Canada {txt}{c |} {res}2005m11 {txt}{c |} {res}      0 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}     15 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}.7333333                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

       {c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
 3503. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}        France {txt}{c |} {res}1962m10 {txt}{c |} {res}      1 {txt}{c |} {res}       0 {txt}{c |} {res}       2 {txt}{c |} {res}      5 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}.2333333                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

       {c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
 5943. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}       Ireland {txt}{c |} {res}1992m11 {txt}{c |} {res}      0 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}       2 {txt}{c |} {res}      9 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}.3166667                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

       {c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
 6526. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}        Israel {txt}{c |} {res} 1990m3 {txt}{c |} {res}      1 {txt}{c |} {res}       0 {txt}{c |} {res}       4 {txt}{c |} {res}     15 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}.6666667                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

       {c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
 7115. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}         Japan {txt}{c |} {res} 1993m6 {txt}{c |} {res}      0 {txt}{c |} {res}       0 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}     18 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}   .1875                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

       {c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
 7574. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}         Japan {txt}{c |} {res} 1980m5 {txt}{c |} {res}      0 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}      5 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}    .875                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

       {c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
 8722. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}      Portugal {txt}{c |} {res} 1987m4 {txt}{c |} {res}      0 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}     17 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}.6458333                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

       {c TLC}{hline 16}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 10}{c TT}{hline 9}{c TRC}
 9559. {c |}          ccode {c |}      ts {c |} surplus {c |} minority {c |} gparties {c |} ts_govt {c |}
       {c |} {res}United Kingdom {txt}{c |} {res} 1979m3 {txt}{c |} {res}      0 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}       1 {txt}{c |} {res}     35 {txt}{c |}
       {c LT}{hline 16}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 10}{c BT}{hline 9}{c RT}
       {c |}                              ciep_p~c                              {c |}
       {c |}                              {res}.1333333                              {txt}{c |}
       {c BLC}{hline 68}{c BRC}

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Propose model
. qui logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode)
{txt}
{com}. predict pr_sbi 
{txt}(option pr assumed; Pr(no_conf_dummy))
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. foreach i of varlist surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt ts_challenge no_challenge annual_ch_rgdppc {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.         gen z_`i' = (1 - pr_sbi) * `i'
{txt}  3{com}. {c )-}
{txt}(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. foreach j of varlist annual_ch_rgdppc eff_par {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.         gen y_`j' = pr_sbi * `j'
{txt}  3{com}. {c )-}
{txt}(173 missing values generated)
(184 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. quietly logit opp_conf_dummy z_surplus z_minority z_gparties z_ciep_perc z_ts_govt z_ts_challenge z_no_challenge z_annual_ch_rgdppc y_annual_ch_rgdppc y_eff_par, nocons iterate(100) robust cluster(ccode)
{txt}
{com}. tab no_conf_dummy if e(sample)

     {txt}Dummy: {c |}
    whether {c |}
 successful {c |}
        NCM {c |}
occurred in {c |}
 that month {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}      9,808       99.88       99.88
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}         12        0.12      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      9,820      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab opp_conf_dummy if e(sample)

     {txt}Dummy: {c |}
whether NCM {c |}
occurred in {c |}
 that month {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}      9,540       97.15       97.15
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}        280        2.85      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      9,820      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab surplus if e(sample)

  {txt}Dummy for {c |}
    surplus {c |}
  coalition {c |}
 [WKB + SW] {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}      7,927       80.72       80.72
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}      1,893       19.28      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      9,820      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab minority if e(sample)

  {txt}Dummy for {c |}
   minority {c |}
 government {c |}
 [WKB + SW] {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}      8,154       83.03       83.03
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}      1,666       16.97      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      9,820      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab gparties if e(sample)

  {txt}Number of {c |}
 government {c |}
    parties {c |}
 [WKB + SW] {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          1 {c |}{res}      3,721       37.89       37.89
{txt}          2 {c |}{res}      3,061       31.17       69.06
{txt}          3 {c |}{res}        937        9.54       78.60
{txt}          4 {c |}{res}      1,186       12.08       90.68
{txt}          5 {c |}{res}        674        6.86       97.55
{txt}          6 {c |}{res}         73        0.74       98.29
{txt}          7 {c |}{res}        112        1.14       99.43
{txt}          8 {c |}{res}          5        0.05       99.48
{txt}          9 {c |}{res}         51        0.52      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      9,820      100.00
{txt}
{com}. sum pr_sbi gparties ciep_perc ts_govt ts_challenge no_challenge annual_ch_rgdppc eff_par surplus minority annual_ch_rgdppc if e(sample)

{txt}    Variable {c |}       Obs        Mean    Std. Dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
{space 6}pr_sbi {c |}{res}      9820    .0530684     .129918   5.74e-07   .8977073
{txt}{space 4}gparties {c |}{res}      9820    2.290122    1.472442          1          9
{txt}{space 3}ciep_perc {c |}{res}      9820    .5736193    .2729654          0          1
{txt}{space 5}ts_govt {c |}{res}      9820    17.14002    12.79182          1         61
{txt}ts_challenge {c |}{res}      9820    60.27963    70.50033          1        416
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
no_challenge {c |}{res}      9820    7.919654     12.4027          0         80
{txt}annual_ch_~c {c |}{res}      9820    2.571391    2.864404  -8.822525    17.5593
{txt}{space 5}eff_par {c |}{res}      9820    3.459352     1.47564   1.535678   9.141498
{txt}{space 5}surplus {c |}{res}      9820    .1927699     .394494          0          1
{txt}{space 4}minority {c |}{res}      9820    .1696538    .3753475          0          1
{txt}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 56}
annual_ch_~c {c |}{res}      9820    2.571391    2.864404  -8.822525    17.5593
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         keep if e(sample)
{txt}(184 observations deleted)

{com}.         collapse (min) start = ts (max) end = ts, by(abbrev)
{txt}
{com}.         sort abbrev
{txt}
{com}.         list abbrev start end
{txt}
     {c TLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c -}{hline 9}{c TRC}
     {c |} {res}abbrev     start       end {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
  1. {c |} {res}   AUL    1954m5   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
  2. {c |} {res}   AUS    1959m3   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
  3. {c |} {res}   BEL    1961m2   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
  4. {c |} {res}   CAN    1962m4   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
  5. {c |} {res}   DEN   1960m10   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
  6. {c |} {res}   FIN   1961m11   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
  7. {c |} {res}   FRN    1959m1   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
  8. {c |} {res}   GMY    1971m1   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
  9. {c |} {res}   GRC   1974m12   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
 10. {c |} {res}   ICE    1959m6   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 11. {c |} {res}   IRE    1961m8   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
 12. {c |} {res}   ISR    1959m7   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
 13. {c |} {res}   ITA    1963m2   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
 14. {c |} {res}   JPN   1960m10   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
 15. {c |} {res}   NEW   1960m11   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 16. {c |} {res}   NTH    1959m6   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
 17. {c |} {res}   POR    1976m7   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
 18. {c |} {res}   SPN    1977m7   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
 19. {c |} {res}   UKG    1959m9   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c BLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c -}{hline 9}{c BRC}

{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Interpolation test for three scenarios
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         keep if inrange(pr_sbi, .045, .055) & e(sample)
{txt}(9772 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort abbrev ts
{txt}
{com}.         list abbrev ts, sepby(abbrev)
{txt}
     {c TLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c TRC}
     {c |} {res}abbrev        ts {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
  1. {c |} {res}   AUL    1958m1 {txt}{c |}
  2. {c |} {res}   AUL    1958m2 {txt}{c |}
  3. {c |} {res}   AUL    1958m3 {txt}{c |}
  4. {c |} {res}   AUL    1966m2 {txt}{c |}
  5. {c |} {res}   AUL    1966m3 {txt}{c |}
  6. {c |} {res}   AUL    1966m4 {txt}{c |}
  7. {c |} {res}   AUL    1966m5 {txt}{c |}
  8. {c |} {res}   AUL    1969m3 {txt}{c |}
  9. {c |} {res}   AUL    1969m4 {txt}{c |}
 10. {c |} {res}   AUL    1969m5 {txt}{c |}
 11. {c |} {res}   AUL    1989m9 {txt}{c |}
 12. {c |} {res}   AUL   1989m10 {txt}{c |}
 13. {c |} {res}   AUL   1989m11 {txt}{c |}
 14. {c |} {res}   AUL   1989m12 {txt}{c |}
 15. {c |} {res}   AUL    1992m4 {txt}{c |}
 16. {c |} {res}   AUL    1992m5 {txt}{c |}
 17. {c |} {res}   AUL    1992m6 {txt}{c |}
 18. {c |} {res}   AUL    1992m7 {txt}{c |}
 19. {c |} {res}   AUL    1995m5 {txt}{c |}
 20. {c |} {res}   AUL    1995m6 {txt}{c |}
 21. {c |} {res}   AUL    1995m7 {txt}{c |}
 22. {c |} {res}   AUL    1995m8 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 23. {c |} {res}   AUS   1961m12 {txt}{c |}
 24. {c |} {res}   AUS    1966m2 {txt}{c |}
 25. {c |} {res}   AUS    1966m3 {txt}{c |}
 26. {c |} {res}   AUS   1968m12 {txt}{c |}
 27. {c |} {res}   AUS    1973m9 {txt}{c |}
 28. {c |} {res}   AUS   1973m10 {txt}{c |}
 29. {c |} {res}   AUS   1973m11 {txt}{c |}
 30. {c |} {res}   AUS   1973m12 {txt}{c |}
 31. {c |} {res}   AUS    1974m8 {txt}{c |}
 32. {c |} {res}   AUS    1974m9 {txt}{c |}
 33. {c |} {res}   AUS   1974m10 {txt}{c |}
 34. {c |} {res}   AUS   1974m11 {txt}{c |}
 35. {c |} {res}   AUS   1974m12 {txt}{c |}
 36. {c |} {res}   AUS    1977m3 {txt}{c |}
 37. {c |} {res}   AUS    1977m4 {txt}{c |}
 38. {c |} {res}   AUS    1977m5 {txt}{c |}
 39. {c |} {res}   AUS    1977m6 {txt}{c |}
 40. {c |} {res}   AUS    1977m7 {txt}{c |}
 41. {c |} {res}   AUS    1979m6 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 42. {c |} {res}   CAN   1971m12 {txt}{c |}
 43. {c |} {res}   CAN    1972m7 {txt}{c |}
 44. {c |} {res}   CAN    1972m8 {txt}{c |}
 45. {c |} {res}   CAN    1972m9 {txt}{c |}
 46. {c |} {res}   CAN   1972m10 {txt}{c |}
 47. {c |} {res}   CAN    1984m1 {txt}{c |}
 48. {c |} {res}   CAN    1984m2 {txt}{c |}
 49. {c |} {res}   CAN    1984m3 {txt}{c |}
 50. {c |} {res}   CAN    1984m4 {txt}{c |}
 51. {c |} {res}   CAN    1984m5 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 52. {c |} {res}   DEN    1965m5 {txt}{c |}
 53. {c |} {res}   DEN    1965m6 {txt}{c |}
 54. {c |} {res}   DEN    1965m7 {txt}{c |}
 55. {c |} {res}   DEN    1965m8 {txt}{c |}
 56. {c |} {res}   DEN    1965m9 {txt}{c |}
 57. {c |} {res}   DEN    1966m7 {txt}{c |}
 58. {c |} {res}   DEN    1966m8 {txt}{c |}
 59. {c |} {res}   DEN    1966m9 {txt}{c |}
 60. {c |} {res}   DEN   1966m10 {txt}{c |}
 61. {c |} {res}   DEN    1967m1 {txt}{c |}
 62. {c |} {res}   DEN   1971m10 {txt}{c |}
 63. {c |} {res}   DEN    1978m1 {txt}{c |}
 64. {c |} {res}   DEN    1979m1 {txt}{c |}
 65. {c |} {res}   DEN    1979m2 {txt}{c |}
 66. {c |} {res}   DEN    1979m3 {txt}{c |}
 67. {c |} {res}   DEN    1979m4 {txt}{c |}
 68. {c |} {res}   DEN   1981m12 {txt}{c |}
 69. {c |} {res}   DEN    1992m2 {txt}{c |}
 70. {c |} {res}   DEN    1992m3 {txt}{c |}
 71. {c |} {res}   DEN    1992m4 {txt}{c |}
 72. {c |} {res}   DEN    1992m5 {txt}{c |}
 73. {c |} {res}   DEN    1999m2 {txt}{c |}
 74. {c |} {res}   DEN    1999m3 {txt}{c |}
 75. {c |} {res}   DEN    1999m4 {txt}{c |}
 76. {c |} {res}   DEN    1999m5 {txt}{c |}
 77. {c |} {res}   DEN    1999m6 {txt}{c |}
 78. {c |} {res}   DEN    2003m9 {txt}{c |}
 79. {c |} {res}   DEN   2003m10 {txt}{c |}
 80. {c |} {res}   DEN   2003m11 {txt}{c |}
 81. {c |} {res}   DEN   2003m12 {txt}{c |}
 82. {c |} {res}   DEN    2005m3 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 83. {c |} {res}   FIN    1969m7 {txt}{c |}
 84. {c |} {res}   FIN    1969m8 {txt}{c |}
 85. {c |} {res}   FIN    1969m9 {txt}{c |}
 86. {c |} {res}   FIN   1969m10 {txt}{c |}
 87. {c |} {res}   FIN   1969m11 {txt}{c |}
 88. {c |} {res}   FIN    2006m1 {txt}{c |}
 89. {c |} {res}   FIN    2006m2 {txt}{c |}
 90. {c |} {res}   FIN    2006m3 {txt}{c |}
 91. {c |} {res}   FIN    2006m4 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 92. {c |} {res}   FRN    1963m1 {txt}{c |}
 93. {c |} {res}   FRN    1963m2 {txt}{c |}
 94. {c |} {res}   FRN    1963m3 {txt}{c |}
 95. {c |} {res}   FRN    1963m4 {txt}{c |}
 96. {c |} {res}   FRN   1968m12 {txt}{c |}
 97. {c |} {res}   FRN    1969m7 {txt}{c |}
 98. {c |} {res}   FRN    1969m8 {txt}{c |}
 99. {c |} {res}   FRN    1969m9 {txt}{c |}
100. {c |} {res}   FRN   1969m10 {txt}{c |}
101. {c |} {res}   FRN   1969m11 {txt}{c |}
102. {c |} {res}   FRN   1971m10 {txt}{c |}
103. {c |} {res}   FRN   1971m11 {txt}{c |}
104. {c |} {res}   FRN   1971m12 {txt}{c |}
105. {c |} {res}   FRN    1972m1 {txt}{c |}
106. {c |} {res}   FRN    1972m2 {txt}{c |}
107. {c |} {res}   FRN    1972m3 {txt}{c |}
108. {c |} {res}   FRN    1972m4 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
109. {c |} {res}   GMY    1976m1 {txt}{c |}
110. {c |} {res}   GMY    1976m2 {txt}{c |}
111. {c |} {res}   GMY    1976m3 {txt}{c |}
112. {c |} {res}   GMY    1976m4 {txt}{c |}
113. {c |} {res}   GMY    1990m8 {txt}{c |}
114. {c |} {res}   GMY    1990m9 {txt}{c |}
115. {c |} {res}   GMY   1990m10 {txt}{c |}
116. {c |} {res}   GMY   1990m11 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
117. {c |} {res}   ICE    1962m7 {txt}{c |}
118. {c |} {res}   ICE    1962m8 {txt}{c |}
119. {c |} {res}   ICE    1962m9 {txt}{c |}
120. {c |} {res}   ICE   1962m10 {txt}{c |}
121. {c |} {res}   ICE   1962m11 {txt}{c |}
122. {c |} {res}   ICE    1963m7 {txt}{c |}
123. {c |} {res}   ICE    1963m8 {txt}{c |}
124. {c |} {res}   ICE    1963m9 {txt}{c |}
125. {c |} {res}   ICE    1965m4 {txt}{c |}
126. {c |} {res}   ICE    1965m5 {txt}{c |}
127. {c |} {res}   ICE    1965m6 {txt}{c |}
128. {c |} {res}   ICE    1965m7 {txt}{c |}
129. {c |} {res}   ICE    1965m8 {txt}{c |}
130. {c |} {res}   ICE    1970m9 {txt}{c |}
131. {c |} {res}   ICE   1970m10 {txt}{c |}
132. {c |} {res}   ICE   1970m11 {txt}{c |}
133. {c |} {res}   ICE   1970m12 {txt}{c |}
134. {c |} {res}   ICE    1971m8 {txt}{c |}
135. {c |} {res}   ICE    1971m9 {txt}{c |}
136. {c |} {res}   ICE   1971m10 {txt}{c |}
137. {c |} {res}   ICE   1971m11 {txt}{c |}
138. {c |} {res}   ICE   1980m10 {txt}{c |}
139. {c |} {res}   ICE   1980m11 {txt}{c |}
140. {c |} {res}   ICE   1980m12 {txt}{c |}
141. {c |} {res}   ICE    1987m2 {txt}{c |}
142. {c |} {res}   ICE    1987m3 {txt}{c |}
143. {c |} {res}   ICE    1987m4 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
144. {c |} {res}   IRE   1964m10 {txt}{c |}
145. {c |} {res}   IRE   1964m11 {txt}{c |}
146. {c |} {res}   IRE   1964m12 {txt}{c |}
147. {c |} {res}   IRE    1997m7 {txt}{c |}
148. {c |} {res}   IRE   2001m10 {txt}{c |}
149. {c |} {res}   IRE   2001m11 {txt}{c |}
150. {c |} {res}   IRE   2001m12 {txt}{c |}
151. {c |} {res}   IRE    2002m4 {txt}{c |}
152. {c |} {res}   IRE    2002m5 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
153. {c |} {res}   ISR    1968m1 {txt}{c |}
154. {c |} {res}   ISR    1968m2 {txt}{c |}
155. {c |} {res}   ISR    1968m3 {txt}{c |}
156. {c |} {res}   ISR    1968m4 {txt}{c |}
157. {c |} {res}   ISR    1968m5 {txt}{c |}
158. {c |} {res}   ISR    1971m7 {txt}{c |}
159. {c |} {res}   ISR    1971m8 {txt}{c |}
160. {c |} {res}   ISR    1971m9 {txt}{c |}
161. {c |} {res}   ISR   1971m10 {txt}{c |}
162. {c |} {res}   ISR   1971m11 {txt}{c |}
163. {c |} {res}   ISR    1972m1 {txt}{c |}
164. {c |} {res}   ISR    1972m2 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
165. {c |} {res}   ITA   1967m10 {txt}{c |}
166. {c |} {res}   ITA   1967m11 {txt}{c |}
167. {c |} {res}   ITA   1967m12 {txt}{c |}
168. {c |} {res}   ITA    1968m1 {txt}{c |}
169. {c |} {res}   ITA    1968m2 {txt}{c |}
170. {c |} {res}   ITA    1968m3 {txt}{c |}
171. {c |} {res}   ITA    1968m4 {txt}{c |}
172. {c |} {res}   ITA    1968m5 {txt}{c |}
173. {c |} {res}   ITA    1970m9 {txt}{c |}
174. {c |} {res}   ITA   1970m10 {txt}{c |}
175. {c |} {res}   ITA   1970m11 {txt}{c |}
176. {c |} {res}   ITA   1970m12 {txt}{c |}
177. {c |} {res}   ITA    1971m2 {txt}{c |}
178. {c |} {res}   ITA    1971m3 {txt}{c |}
179. {c |} {res}   ITA    1971m4 {txt}{c |}
180. {c |} {res}   ITA    1980m2 {txt}{c |}
181. {c |} {res}   ITA    1980m3 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
182. {c |} {res}   JPN    1962m2 {txt}{c |}
183. {c |} {res}   JPN    1962m3 {txt}{c |}
184. {c |} {res}   JPN    1962m4 {txt}{c |}
185. {c |} {res}   JPN    1962m5 {txt}{c |}
186. {c |} {res}   JPN    1973m8 {txt}{c |}
187. {c |} {res}   JPN    1973m9 {txt}{c |}
188. {c |} {res}   JPN   1973m10 {txt}{c |}
189. {c |} {res}   JPN   1973m11 {txt}{c |}
190. {c |} {res}   JPN   1973m12 {txt}{c |}
191. {c |} {res}   JPN    1976m1 {txt}{c |}
192. {c |} {res}   JPN    1976m2 {txt}{c |}
193. {c |} {res}   JPN    1976m3 {txt}{c |}
194. {c |} {res}   JPN    1976m4 {txt}{c |}
195. {c |} {res}   JPN    1976m5 {txt}{c |}
196. {c |} {res}   JPN    1994m5 {txt}{c |}
197. {c |} {res}   JPN    1994m6 {txt}{c |}
198. {c |} {res}   JPN    1995m1 {txt}{c |}
199. {c |} {res}   JPN    1995m2 {txt}{c |}
200. {c |} {res}   JPN    2001m1 {txt}{c |}
201. {c |} {res}   JPN    2001m2 {txt}{c |}
202. {c |} {res}   JPN   2001m12 {txt}{c |}
203. {c |} {res}   JPN    2002m5 {txt}{c |}
204. {c |} {res}   JPN    2002m6 {txt}{c |}
205. {c |} {res}   JPN    2002m7 {txt}{c |}
206. {c |} {res}   JPN    2002m8 {txt}{c |}
207. {c |} {res}   JPN    2002m9 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
208. {c |} {res}   NEW   1966m11 {txt}{c |}
209. {c |} {res}   NEW    2001m1 {txt}{c |}
210. {c |} {res}   NEW   2002m10 {txt}{c |}
211. {c |} {res}   NEW   2002m11 {txt}{c |}
212. {c |} {res}   NEW    2003m4 {txt}{c |}
213. {c |} {res}   NEW    2003m5 {txt}{c |}
214. {c |} {res}   NEW    2003m6 {txt}{c |}
215. {c |} {res}   NEW   2005m10 {txt}{c |}
216. {c |} {res}   NEW   2005m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
217. {c |} {res}   NTH    2000m4 {txt}{c |}
218. {c |} {res}   NTH    2000m5 {txt}{c |}
219. {c |} {res}   NTH    2000m6 {txt}{c |}
220. {c |} {res}   NTH    2000m7 {txt}{c |}
221. {c |} {res}   NTH    2000m8 {txt}{c |}
222. {c |} {res}   NTH    2001m9 {txt}{c |}
223. {c |} {res}   NTH   2001m10 {txt}{c |}
224. {c |} {res}   NTH   2001m11 {txt}{c |}
225. {c |} {res}   NTH   2001m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
226. {c |} {res}   POR   1995m11 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
227. {c |} {res}   SPN    1989m4 {txt}{c |}
228. {c |} {res}   SPN    1989m5 {txt}{c |}
229. {c |} {res}   SPN    1989m6 {txt}{c |}
230. {c |} {res}   SPN    1989m7 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
231. {c |} {res}   UKG    1959m9 {txt}{c |}
232. {c |} {res}   UKG   1959m10 {txt}{c |}
     {c BLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c BRC}

{com}.         di _N
{res}232
{txt}
{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         keep if inrange(pr_sbi, .2, .3) & e(sample)
{txt}(9776 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort abbrev ts
{txt}
{com}.         list abbrev ts, sepby(abbrev)
{txt}
     {c TLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c TRC}
     {c |} {res}abbrev        ts {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
  1. {c |} {res}   AUL    1976m4 {txt}{c |}
  2. {c |} {res}   AUL    1976m5 {txt}{c |}
  3. {c |} {res}   AUL    1976m6 {txt}{c |}
  4. {c |} {res}   AUL    1976m7 {txt}{c |}
  5. {c |} {res}   AUL    1976m8 {txt}{c |}
  6. {c |} {res}   AUL    1976m9 {txt}{c |}
  7. {c |} {res}   AUL   1976m10 {txt}{c |}
  8. {c |} {res}   AUL   1976m11 {txt}{c |}
  9. {c |} {res}   AUL   1976m12 {txt}{c |}
 10. {c |} {res}   AUL    1977m3 {txt}{c |}
 11. {c |} {res}   AUL    1977m4 {txt}{c |}
 12. {c |} {res}   AUL    1977m5 {txt}{c |}
 13. {c |} {res}   AUL    1977m6 {txt}{c |}
 14. {c |} {res}   AUL    1977m7 {txt}{c |}
 15. {c |} {res}   AUL    1977m8 {txt}{c |}
 16. {c |} {res}   AUL    1977m9 {txt}{c |}
 17. {c |} {res}   AUL   1977m10 {txt}{c |}
 18. {c |} {res}   AUL   1977m11 {txt}{c |}
 19. {c |} {res}   AUL    1978m1 {txt}{c |}
 20. {c |} {res}   AUL    1978m2 {txt}{c |}
 21. {c |} {res}   AUL    1978m3 {txt}{c |}
 22. {c |} {res}   AUL    1978m4 {txt}{c |}
 23. {c |} {res}   AUL    1978m5 {txt}{c |}
 24. {c |} {res}   AUL    1978m6 {txt}{c |}
 25. {c |} {res}   AUL    1979m1 {txt}{c |}
 26. {c |} {res}   AUL    1979m2 {txt}{c |}
 27. {c |} {res}   AUL    1979m3 {txt}{c |}
 28. {c |} {res}   AUL    1979m4 {txt}{c |}
 29. {c |} {res}   AUL    1979m5 {txt}{c |}
 30. {c |} {res}   AUL    1979m6 {txt}{c |}
 31. {c |} {res}   AUL    1979m7 {txt}{c |}
 32. {c |} {res}   AUL   1996m11 {txt}{c |}
 33. {c |} {res}   AUL   1996m12 {txt}{c |}
 34. {c |} {res}   AUL    1997m1 {txt}{c |}
 35. {c |} {res}   AUL    1997m2 {txt}{c |}
 36. {c |} {res}   AUL    1997m3 {txt}{c |}
 37. {c |} {res}   AUL    1997m4 {txt}{c |}
 38. {c |} {res}   AUL    1997m5 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 39. {c |} {res}   AUS    1960m9 {txt}{c |}
 40. {c |} {res}   AUS   1960m10 {txt}{c |}
 41. {c |} {res}   AUS   1960m11 {txt}{c |}
 42. {c |} {res}   AUS   1960m12 {txt}{c |}
 43. {c |} {res}   AUS    1979m1 {txt}{c |}
 44. {c |} {res}   AUS    1979m2 {txt}{c |}
 45. {c |} {res}   AUS    1979m3 {txt}{c |}
 46. {c |} {res}   AUS    1979m4 {txt}{c |}
 47. {c |} {res}   AUS    1979m5 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 48. {c |} {res}   CAN    1967m1 {txt}{c |}
 49. {c |} {res}   CAN    1967m2 {txt}{c |}
 50. {c |} {res}   CAN    1967m3 {txt}{c |}
 51. {c |} {res}   CAN    1967m4 {txt}{c |}
 52. {c |} {res}   CAN    1967m5 {txt}{c |}
 53. {c |} {res}   CAN    1967m6 {txt}{c |}
 54. {c |} {res}   CAN    1967m7 {txt}{c |}
 55. {c |} {res}   CAN    1967m8 {txt}{c |}
 56. {c |} {res}   CAN    1967m9 {txt}{c |}
 57. {c |} {res}   CAN    1980m1 {txt}{c |}
 58. {c |} {res}   CAN    1980m2 {txt}{c |}
 59. {c |} {res}   CAN    2005m1 {txt}{c |}
 60. {c |} {res}   CAN    2005m2 {txt}{c |}
 61. {c |} {res}   CAN    2005m3 {txt}{c |}
 62. {c |} {res}   CAN    2005m4 {txt}{c |}
 63. {c |} {res}   CAN    2005m5 {txt}{c |}
 64. {c |} {res}   CAN    2005m6 {txt}{c |}
 65. {c |} {res}   CAN    2005m7 {txt}{c |}
 66. {c |} {res}   CAN    2005m8 {txt}{c |}
 67. {c |} {res}   CAN    2005m9 {txt}{c |}
 68. {c |} {res}   CAN   2005m10 {txt}{c |}
 69. {c |} {res}   CAN   2005m11 {txt}{c |}
 70. {c |} {res}   CAN   2005m12 {txt}{c |}
 71. {c |} {res}   CAN    2006m1 {txt}{c |}
 72. {c |} {res}   CAN    2006m7 {txt}{c |}
 73. {c |} {res}   CAN    2006m8 {txt}{c |}
 74. {c |} {res}   CAN    2006m9 {txt}{c |}
 75. {c |} {res}   CAN   2006m10 {txt}{c |}
 76. {c |} {res}   CAN   2006m11 {txt}{c |}
 77. {c |} {res}   CAN   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 78. {c |} {res}   DEN   1960m12 {txt}{c |}
 79. {c |} {res}   DEN    1961m1 {txt}{c |}
 80. {c |} {res}   DEN    1961m2 {txt}{c |}
 81. {c |} {res}   DEN    1961m3 {txt}{c |}
 82. {c |} {res}   DEN    1961m4 {txt}{c |}
 83. {c |} {res}   DEN    1961m5 {txt}{c |}
 84. {c |} {res}   DEN    1961m6 {txt}{c |}
 85. {c |} {res}   DEN    1961m7 {txt}{c |}
 86. {c |} {res}   DEN    1961m8 {txt}{c |}
 87. {c |} {res}   DEN    1961m9 {txt}{c |}
 88. {c |} {res}   DEN   1961m10 {txt}{c |}
 89. {c |} {res}   DEN   1961m11 {txt}{c |}
 90. {c |} {res}   DEN   1961m12 {txt}{c |}
 91. {c |} {res}   DEN    1962m1 {txt}{c |}
 92. {c |} {res}   DEN    1962m2 {txt}{c |}
 93. {c |} {res}   DEN    1962m3 {txt}{c |}
 94. {c |} {res}   DEN    1962m4 {txt}{c |}
 95. {c |} {res}   DEN   1972m10 {txt}{c |}
 96. {c |} {res}   DEN   1972m11 {txt}{c |}
 97. {c |} {res}   DEN   1972m12 {txt}{c |}
 98. {c |} {res}   DEN    1973m5 {txt}{c |}
 99. {c |} {res}   DEN    1973m6 {txt}{c |}
100. {c |} {res}   DEN    1973m7 {txt}{c |}
101. {c |} {res}   DEN    1973m8 {txt}{c |}
102. {c |} {res}   DEN    1973m9 {txt}{c |}
103. {c |} {res}   DEN   1973m10 {txt}{c |}
104. {c |} {res}   DEN   1973m11 {txt}{c |}
105. {c |} {res}   DEN   1973m12 {txt}{c |}
106. {c |} {res}   DEN   1979m10 {txt}{c |}
107. {c |} {res}   DEN    1997m7 {txt}{c |}
108. {c |} {res}   DEN    1997m8 {txt}{c |}
109. {c |} {res}   DEN    1997m9 {txt}{c |}
110. {c |} {res}   DEN   1997m10 {txt}{c |}
111. {c |} {res}   DEN   1997m11 {txt}{c |}
112. {c |} {res}   DEN   1997m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
113. {c |} {res}   FIN    1972m7 {txt}{c |}
114. {c |} {res}   FIN    1972m8 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
115. {c |} {res}   FRN    1966m2 {txt}{c |}
116. {c |} {res}   FRN    1966m3 {txt}{c |}
117. {c |} {res}   FRN    1966m4 {txt}{c |}
118. {c |} {res}   FRN    1966m5 {txt}{c |}
119. {c |} {res}   FRN    1966m6 {txt}{c |}
120. {c |} {res}   FRN    1966m7 {txt}{c |}
121. {c |} {res}   FRN    1966m8 {txt}{c |}
122. {c |} {res}   FRN    1966m9 {txt}{c |}
123. {c |} {res}   FRN   1966m10 {txt}{c |}
124. {c |} {res}   FRN   1966m11 {txt}{c |}
125. {c |} {res}   FRN   1966m12 {txt}{c |}
126. {c |} {res}   FRN    1967m1 {txt}{c |}
127. {c |} {res}   FRN    1967m2 {txt}{c |}
128. {c |} {res}   FRN    1967m3 {txt}{c |}
129. {c |} {res}   FRN    1968m5 {txt}{c |}
130. {c |} {res}   FRN    1988m6 {txt}{c |}
131. {c |} {res}   FRN    1992m2 {txt}{c |}
132. {c |} {res}   FRN    1992m3 {txt}{c |}
133. {c |} {res}   FRN    1992m4 {txt}{c |}
134. {c |} {res}   FRN    1992m5 {txt}{c |}
135. {c |} {res}   FRN    1992m6 {txt}{c |}
136. {c |} {res}   FRN    1992m7 {txt}{c |}
137. {c |} {res}   FRN    1992m8 {txt}{c |}
138. {c |} {res}   FRN    1992m9 {txt}{c |}
139. {c |} {res}   FRN   1992m10 {txt}{c |}
140. {c |} {res}   FRN   1992m11 {txt}{c |}
141. {c |} {res}   FRN   1992m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
142. {c |} {res}   GRC    1976m8 {txt}{c |}
143. {c |} {res}   GRC    1976m9 {txt}{c |}
144. {c |} {res}   GRC   1976m10 {txt}{c |}
145. {c |} {res}   GRC   1976m11 {txt}{c |}
146. {c |} {res}   GRC   1976m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
147. {c |} {res}   ICE    1963m1 {txt}{c |}
148. {c |} {res}   ICE    1963m2 {txt}{c |}
149. {c |} {res}   ICE    1963m3 {txt}{c |}
150. {c |} {res}   ICE    1963m4 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
151. {c |} {res}   ITA   1974m11 {txt}{c |}
152. {c |} {res}   ITA   1974m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
153. {c |} {res}   JPN    1966m7 {txt}{c |}
154. {c |} {res}   JPN    1966m8 {txt}{c |}
155. {c |} {res}   JPN    1966m9 {txt}{c |}
156. {c |} {res}   JPN   1966m10 {txt}{c |}
157. {c |} {res}   JPN   1966m11 {txt}{c |}
158. {c |} {res}   JPN   1966m12 {txt}{c |}
159. {c |} {res}   JPN    1968m1 {txt}{c |}
160. {c |} {res}   JPN    1968m2 {txt}{c |}
161. {c |} {res}   JPN    1968m3 {txt}{c |}
162. {c |} {res}   JPN    1968m4 {txt}{c |}
163. {c |} {res}   JPN    1968m5 {txt}{c |}
164. {c |} {res}   JPN    1968m6 {txt}{c |}
165. {c |} {res}   JPN    1968m7 {txt}{c |}
166. {c |} {res}   JPN    1968m8 {txt}{c |}
167. {c |} {res}   JPN    1968m9 {txt}{c |}
168. {c |} {res}   JPN   1968m10 {txt}{c |}
169. {c |} {res}   JPN   1968m11 {txt}{c |}
170. {c |} {res}   JPN    1969m1 {txt}{c |}
171. {c |} {res}   JPN    1969m2 {txt}{c |}
172. {c |} {res}   JPN    1969m3 {txt}{c |}
173. {c |} {res}   JPN    1969m4 {txt}{c |}
174. {c |} {res}   JPN    1969m5 {txt}{c |}
175. {c |} {res}   JPN    1969m6 {txt}{c |}
176. {c |} {res}   JPN    1986m1 {txt}{c |}
177. {c |} {res}   JPN    1986m2 {txt}{c |}
178. {c |} {res}   JPN    1986m3 {txt}{c |}
179. {c |} {res}   JPN    1986m4 {txt}{c |}
180. {c |} {res}   JPN    1986m5 {txt}{c |}
181. {c |} {res}   JPN    1996m9 {txt}{c |}
182. {c |} {res}   JPN   1996m10 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
183. {c |} {res}   NEW    2005m1 {txt}{c |}
184. {c |} {res}   NEW    2005m2 {txt}{c |}
185. {c |} {res}   NEW    2005m3 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
186. {c |} {res}   NTH    1960m8 {txt}{c |}
187. {c |} {res}   NTH    1960m9 {txt}{c |}
188. {c |} {res}   NTH   1960m10 {txt}{c |}
189. {c |} {res}   NTH   1960m11 {txt}{c |}
190. {c |} {res}   NTH   1960m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
191. {c |} {res}   POR    1986m1 {txt}{c |}
192. {c |} {res}   POR    1997m5 {txt}{c |}
193. {c |} {res}   POR    1997m6 {txt}{c |}
194. {c |} {res}   POR    1997m7 {txt}{c |}
195. {c |} {res}   POR    1997m8 {txt}{c |}
196. {c |} {res}   POR    1997m9 {txt}{c |}
197. {c |} {res}   POR   1997m10 {txt}{c |}
198. {c |} {res}   POR   1997m11 {txt}{c |}
199. {c |} {res}   POR   1997m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
200. {c |} {res}   SPN    1982m4 {txt}{c |}
201. {c |} {res}   SPN    1982m5 {txt}{c |}
202. {c |} {res}   SPN    1982m6 {txt}{c |}
203. {c |} {res}   SPN    1982m7 {txt}{c |}
204. {c |} {res}   SPN    1982m8 {txt}{c |}
205. {c |} {res}   SPN    1982m9 {txt}{c |}
206. {c |} {res}   SPN   1982m10 {txt}{c |}
207. {c |} {res}   SPN    1994m1 {txt}{c |}
208. {c |} {res}   SPN    1994m2 {txt}{c |}
209. {c |} {res}   SPN    1994m3 {txt}{c |}
210. {c |} {res}   SPN    1994m4 {txt}{c |}
211. {c |} {res}   SPN    1994m5 {txt}{c |}
212. {c |} {res}   SPN    1994m6 {txt}{c |}
213. {c |} {res}   SPN    1996m6 {txt}{c |}
214. {c |} {res}   SPN    1996m7 {txt}{c |}
215. {c |} {res}   SPN    2004m8 {txt}{c |}
216. {c |} {res}   SPN    2004m9 {txt}{c |}
217. {c |} {res}   SPN   2004m10 {txt}{c |}
218. {c |} {res}   SPN   2004m11 {txt}{c |}
219. {c |} {res}   SPN   2004m12 {txt}{c |}
220. {c |} {res}   SPN    2005m1 {txt}{c |}
221. {c |} {res}   SPN    2005m2 {txt}{c |}
222. {c |} {res}   SPN    2005m3 {txt}{c |}
223. {c |} {res}   SPN    2005m4 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
224. {c |} {res}   UKG    1976m8 {txt}{c |}
225. {c |} {res}   UKG    1976m9 {txt}{c |}
226. {c |} {res}   UKG   1976m10 {txt}{c |}
227. {c |} {res}   UKG   1976m11 {txt}{c |}
228. {c |} {res}   UKG   1976m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c BLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c BRC}

{com}.         di _N
{res}228
{txt}
{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. preserve
{txt}
{com}.         keep if inrange(pr_sbi, .45, .55) & e(sample)
{txt}(9900 observations deleted)

{com}.         sort abbrev ts
{txt}
{com}.         list abbrev ts, sepby(abbrev)
{txt}
     {c TLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c TRC}
     {c |} {res}abbrev        ts {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
  1. {c |} {res}   AUL    1980m1 {txt}{c |}
  2. {c |} {res}   AUL    1980m2 {txt}{c |}
  3. {c |} {res}   AUL    1980m3 {txt}{c |}
  4. {c |} {res}   AUL    1980m4 {txt}{c |}
  5. {c |} {res}   AUL    1980m5 {txt}{c |}
  6. {c |} {res}   AUL    1998m1 {txt}{c |}
  7. {c |} {res}   AUL    1998m2 {txt}{c |}
  8. {c |} {res}   AUL    1998m3 {txt}{c |}
  9. {c |} {res}   AUL    1998m4 {txt}{c |}
 10. {c |} {res}   AUL    1998m5 {txt}{c |}
 11. {c |} {res}   AUL    1998m6 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 12. {c |} {res}   CAN   1962m12 {txt}{c |}
 13. {c |} {res}   CAN    1966m1 {txt}{c |}
 14. {c |} {res}   CAN    1966m2 {txt}{c |}
 15. {c |} {res}   CAN    1966m3 {txt}{c |}
 16. {c |} {res}   CAN    1966m4 {txt}{c |}
 17. {c |} {res}   CAN    1966m5 {txt}{c |}
 18. {c |} {res}   CAN    1966m6 {txt}{c |}
 19. {c |} {res}   CAN   1972m11 {txt}{c |}
 20. {c |} {res}   CAN   1972m12 {txt}{c |}
 21. {c |} {res}   CAN    1974m1 {txt}{c |}
 22. {c |} {res}   CAN    1974m2 {txt}{c |}
 23. {c |} {res}   CAN    1974m3 {txt}{c |}
 24. {c |} {res}   CAN    1974m4 {txt}{c |}
 25. {c |} {res}   CAN    1974m5 {txt}{c |}
 26. {c |} {res}   CAN    1974m6 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 27. {c |} {res}   ICE    1959m7 {txt}{c |}
 28. {c |} {res}   ICE    1959m8 {txt}{c |}
 29. {c |} {res}   ICE    1959m9 {txt}{c |}
 30. {c |} {res}   ICE   1959m10 {txt}{c |}
 31. {c |} {res}   ICE   1959m11 {txt}{c |}
 32. {c |} {res}   ICE   1979m10 {txt}{c |}
 33. {c |} {res}   ICE   1979m11 {txt}{c |}
 34. {c |} {res}   ICE   1979m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 35. {c |} {res}   ISR    1959m7 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 36. {c |} {res}   ITA    1969m8 {txt}{c |}
 37. {c |} {res}   ITA    1969m9 {txt}{c |}
 38. {c |} {res}   ITA   1969m10 {txt}{c |}
 39. {c |} {res}   ITA   1969m11 {txt}{c |}
 40. {c |} {res}   ITA   1969m12 {txt}{c |}
 41. {c |} {res}   ITA    1970m2 {txt}{c |}
 42. {c |} {res}   ITA    1972m2 {txt}{c |}
 43. {c |} {res}   ITA    1972m3 {txt}{c |}
 44. {c |} {res}   ITA    1972m4 {txt}{c |}
 45. {c |} {res}   ITA    1972m5 {txt}{c |}
 46. {c |} {res}   ITA    1976m1 {txt}{c |}
 47. {c |} {res}   ITA   1976m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 48. {c |} {res}   JPN    1977m1 {txt}{c |}
 49. {c |} {res}   JPN    1977m2 {txt}{c |}
 50. {c |} {res}   JPN    1977m3 {txt}{c |}
 51. {c |} {res}   JPN    1977m4 {txt}{c |}
 52. {c |} {res}   JPN    1980m5 {txt}{c |}
 53. {c |} {res}   JPN    1980m6 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 54. {c |} {res}   NEW    1999m2 {txt}{c |}
 55. {c |} {res}   NEW    1999m3 {txt}{c |}
 56. {c |} {res}   NEW    1999m4 {txt}{c |}
 57. {c |} {res}   NEW    1999m5 {txt}{c |}
 58. {c |} {res}   NEW    1999m6 {txt}{c |}
 59. {c |} {res}   NEW    1999m7 {txt}{c |}
 60. {c |} {res}   NEW    1999m8 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 61. {c |} {res}   NTH    2006m9 {txt}{c |}
 62. {c |} {res}   NTH   2006m10 {txt}{c |}
 63. {c |} {res}   NTH   2006m11 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 64. {c |} {res}   POR    1987m1 {txt}{c |}
 65. {c |} {res}   POR    1987m2 {txt}{c |}
 66. {c |} {res}   POR    1987m3 {txt}{c |}
 67. {c |} {res}   POR    1987m4 {txt}{c |}
 68. {c |} {res}   POR    1987m5 {txt}{c |}
 69. {c |} {res}   POR    1987m6 {txt}{c |}
 70. {c |} {res}   POR    1987m7 {txt}{c |}
 71. {c |} {res}   POR    1999m8 {txt}{c |}
 72. {c |} {res}   POR    1999m9 {txt}{c |}
 73. {c |} {res}   POR   1999m10 {txt}{c |}
     {c LT}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c RT}
 74. {c |} {res}   SPN    1990m1 {txt}{c |}
 75. {c |} {res}   SPN    1990m2 {txt}{c |}
 76. {c |} {res}   SPN    1993m1 {txt}{c |}
 77. {c |} {res}   SPN    1993m2 {txt}{c |}
 78. {c |} {res}   SPN    1993m3 {txt}{c |}
 79. {c |} {res}   SPN    1993m4 {txt}{c |}
 80. {c |} {res}   SPN    1995m6 {txt}{c |}
 81. {c |} {res}   SPN    1995m7 {txt}{c |}
 82. {c |} {res}   SPN    1995m8 {txt}{c |}
 83. {c |} {res}   SPN    1995m9 {txt}{c |}
 84. {c |} {res}   SPN   1995m10 {txt}{c |}
 85. {c |} {res}   SPN   1995m11 {txt}{c |}
 86. {c |} {res}   SPN   1995m12 {txt}{c |}
 87. {c |} {res}   SPN    1996m1 {txt}{c |}
 88. {c |} {res}   SPN    1996m2 {txt}{c |}
 89. {c |} {res}   SPN    1996m3 {txt}{c |}
 90. {c |} {res}   SPN    1997m1 {txt}{c |}
 91. {c |} {res}   SPN    1997m2 {txt}{c |}
 92. {c |} {res}   SPN    1997m3 {txt}{c |}
 93. {c |} {res}   SPN    1997m4 {txt}{c |}
 94. {c |} {res}   SPN    1997m5 {txt}{c |}
 95. {c |} {res}   SPN    1997m6 {txt}{c |}
 96. {c |} {res}   SPN    1997m7 {txt}{c |}
 97. {c |} {res}   SPN    2006m5 {txt}{c |}
 98. {c |} {res}   SPN    2006m6 {txt}{c |}
 99. {c |} {res}   SPN    2006m7 {txt}{c |}
100. {c |} {res}   SPN    2006m8 {txt}{c |}
101. {c |} {res}   SPN    2006m9 {txt}{c |}
102. {c |} {res}   SPN   2006m10 {txt}{c |}
103. {c |} {res}   SPN   2006m11 {txt}{c |}
104. {c |} {res}   SPN   2006m12 {txt}{c |}
     {c BLC}{hline 8}{c -}{hline 9}{c BRC}

{com}.         di _N
{res}104
{txt}
{com}. restore
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. **********************************************************************************
. **********************************************************************************
. ***************** Additional Materials ****************************************
. **********************************************************************************
. **********************************************************************************
. 
. **********************************************************************************
. **** Curvilinear relationship
. **********************************************************************************
. use "Williams PSRM.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ciep_perc2 ts_govt ts_govt2 annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-49.537698}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -44.47923}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-30.720464}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-28.494313}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-28.251528}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res: -28.24822}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-28.248217}  
Iteration 7:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-28.248217}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       280
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}9{txt}){col 67}= {res}     87.64
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-28.248217{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.4298

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:19} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}no_conf_du~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}surplus {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 4.952389{col 26}{space 2} 1.895228{col 37}{space 1}    2.61{col 46}{space 3}0.009{col 54}{space 4}  1.23781{col 67}{space 3} 8.666968
{txt}{space 4}minority {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 5.105621{col 26}{space 2} 1.664705{col 37}{space 1}    3.07{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4} 1.842859{col 67}{space 3} 8.368384
{txt}{space 4}gparties {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.509291{col 26}{space 2} .5326932{col 37}{space 1}   -2.83{col 46}{space 3}0.005{col 54}{space 4} -2.55335{col 67}{space 3}-.4652312
{txt}{space 3}ciep_perc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-8.460865{col 26}{space 2} 6.424317{col 37}{space 1}   -1.32{col 46}{space 3}0.188{col 54}{space 4} -21.0523{col 67}{space 3} 4.130566
{txt}{space 2}ciep_perc2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 5.455312{col 26}{space 2} 6.084218{col 37}{space 1}    0.90{col 46}{space 3}0.370{col 54}{space 4}-6.469537{col 67}{space 3} 17.38016
{txt}{space 5}ts_govt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4054773{col 26}{space 2} .1779834{col 37}{space 1}    2.28{col 46}{space 3}0.023{col 54}{space 4} .0566363{col 67}{space 3} .7543183
{txt}{space 4}ts_govt2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0116394{col 26}{space 2}   .00563{col 37}{space 1}   -2.07{col 46}{space 3}0.039{col 54}{space 4}-.0226739{col 67}{space 3}-.0006049
{txt}annual_ch_~c {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3278145{col 26}{space 2} .2387901{col 37}{space 1}    1.37{col 46}{space 3}0.170{col 54}{space 4}-.1402055{col 67}{space 3} .7958346
{txt}return_elect {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 7.115399{col 26}{space 2} 3.394448{col 37}{space 1}    2.10{col 46}{space 3}0.036{col 54}{space 4} .4624038{col 67}{space 3} 13.76839
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-8.979759{col 26}{space 2} 3.886751{col 37}{space 1}   -2.31{col 46}{space 3}0.021{col 54}{space 4}-16.59765{col 67}{space 3}-1.361866
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{p 0 6 2}Note: 2 failures and 0 successes completely determined.{p_end}

{com}. predict pr_sbi 
{txt}(option pr assumed; Pr(no_conf_dummy))
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. foreach i of varlist surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ciep_perc2 ts_govt ts_govt2 ts_challenge no_challenge annual_ch_rgdppc {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.         gen z_`i' = (1 - pr_sbi) * `i'
{txt}  3{com}. {c )-}
{txt}(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. foreach j of varlist annual_ch_rgdppc eff_par {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.         gen y_`j' = pr_sbi * `j'
{txt}  3{com}. {c )-}
{txt}(173 missing values generated)
(184 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. di "$S_TIME"
{res}11:09:51
{txt}
{com}. bootstrap r(surplus) r(minority) r(gparties) r(ciep_perc) r(ciep_perc2) r(ts_govt) r(ts_govt2) r(ts_challenge) r(no_challenge) r(annual_ch_rgdppc_F) r(annual_ch_rgdppc_P) r(eff_par), reps(1000) dots: sbi2, seed(648)
{txt}(running sbi2 on estimation sample)

Bootstrap replications ({res}1000{txt})
{hline 4}{c +}{hline 3} 1 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 2 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 3 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 4 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 5 
..................................................    50
..................................................   100
..................................................   150
..................................................   200
..................................................   250
..................................................   300
..................................................   350
..................................................   400
..................................................   450
..................................................   500
..................................................   550
..................................................   600
..................................................   650
..................................................   700
..................................................   750
..................................................   800
..................................................   850
..................................................   900
..................................................   950
..................................................  1000
{res}
{txt}Bootstrap results{col 49}Number of obs{col 68}= {res}     9820
{txt}{col 49}Replications{col 68}= {res}     1000
{p2colset 7 17 21 2}{...}

{txt}{p2col :command:}sbi2, seed(648) {p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_1:}{res:r(surplus)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_2:}{res:r(minority)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_3:}{res:r(gparties)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_4:}{res:r(ciep_perc)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_5:}{res:r(ciep_perc2)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_6:}{res:r(ts_govt)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_7:}{res:r(ts_govt2)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_8:}{res:r(ts_challenge)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_9:}{res:r(no_challenge)}{p_end}
{p2colset 8 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_10:}{res:r(annual_ch_rgdppc_F)}{p_end}
{p2colset 8 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_11:}{res:r(annual_ch_rgdppc_P)}{p_end}
{p2colset 8 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_12:}{res:r(eff_par)}{p_end}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}   Observed{col 26}   Bootstrap{col 54}         Norm{col 67}al-based
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_bs_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .4036592{col 26}{space 2} .1983526{col 37}{space 1}    2.04{col 46}{space 3}0.042{col 54}{space 4} .0148953{col 67}{space 3} .7924232
{txt}{space 7}_bs_2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5049375{col 26}{space 2} .1898627{col 37}{space 1}    2.66{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4} .1328135{col 67}{space 3} .8770615
{txt}{space 7}_bs_3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0793393{col 26}{space 2} .0466027{col 37}{space 1}   -1.70{col 46}{space 3}0.089{col 54}{space 4}-.1706789{col 67}{space 3} .0120002
{txt}{space 7}_bs_4 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-6.618353{col 26}{space 2} .7112474{col 37}{space 1}   -9.31{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-8.012373{col 67}{space 3}-5.224334
{txt}{space 7}_bs_5 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}  4.15676{col 26}{space 2} .7283954{col 37}{space 1}    5.71{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} 2.729131{col 67}{space 3} 5.584388
{txt}{space 7}_bs_6 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0356666{col 26}{space 2} .0166449{col 37}{space 1}   -2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.032{col 54}{space 4}  -.06829{col 67}{space 3}-.0030432
{txt}{space 7}_bs_7 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0002409{col 26}{space 2} .0003846{col 37}{space 1}   -0.63{col 46}{space 3}0.531{col 54}{space 4}-.0009946{col 67}{space 3} .0005128
{txt}{space 7}_bs_8 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0184339{col 26}{space 2} .0040649{col 37}{space 1}   -4.53{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -.026401{col 67}{space 3}-.0104668
{txt}{space 7}_bs_9 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0214191{col 26}{space 2} .0032985{col 37}{space 1}    6.49{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0149542{col 67}{space 3}  .027884
{txt}{space 6}_bs_10 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1055224{col 26}{space 2} .0219052{col 37}{space 1}   -4.82{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.1484559{col 67}{space 3} -.062589
{txt}{space 6}_bs_11 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0823648{col 26}{space 2} .2081522{col 37}{space 1}   -0.40{col 46}{space 3}0.692{col 54}{space 4}-.4903357{col 67}{space 3} .3256061
{txt}{space 6}_bs_12 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.551571{col 26}{space 2} .3140049{col 37}{space 1}   -4.94{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} -2.16701{col 67}{space 3}-.9361332
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. di "$S_TIME"
{res}11:11:43
{txt}
{com}. 
. **********************************************************************************
. **** Including institutional variables in the U_O(Pass)
. **********************************************************************************
. use "Williams PSRM.dta", clear
{txt}
{com}. 
. logit no_conf_dummy surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc return_elect if opp_conf_dummy==1, robust cluster(ccode)

{res}{txt}Iteration 0:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-49.537698}  
Iteration 1:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-45.107038}  
Iteration 2:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-32.758575}  
Iteration 3:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-31.116616}  
Iteration 4:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-30.990856}  
Iteration 5:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-30.990415}  
Iteration 6:{space 3}log pseudolikelihood = {res:-30.990415}  
{res}
{txt}Logistic regression{col 51}Number of obs{col 67}= {res}       280
{txt}{col 51}Wald chi2({res}7{txt}){col 67}= {res}     43.73
{txt}{col 51}Prob > chi2{col 67}= {res}    0.0000
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-30.990415{txt}{col 51}Pseudo R2{col 67}= {res}    0.3744

{txt}{ralign 78:(Std. Err. adjusted for {res:19} clusters in ccode)}
{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}{col 26}    Robust
{col 1}no_conf_du~y{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 5}surplus {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 3.968157{col 26}{space 2} 1.857618{col 37}{space 1}    2.14{col 46}{space 3}0.033{col 54}{space 4} .3272935{col 67}{space 3} 7.609021
{txt}{space 4}minority {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 4.611374{col 26}{space 2} 1.527628{col 37}{space 1}    3.02{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4} 1.617277{col 67}{space 3} 7.605471
{txt}{space 4}gparties {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.263316{col 26}{space 2} .4153191{col 37}{space 1}   -3.04{col 46}{space 3}0.002{col 54}{space 4}-2.077327{col 67}{space 3}-.4493058
{txt}{space 3}ciep_perc {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.377267{col 26}{space 2} 1.128086{col 37}{space 1}   -2.11{col 46}{space 3}0.035{col 54}{space 4}-4.588275{col 67}{space 3}-.1662586
{txt}{space 5}ts_govt {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0047198{col 26}{space 2} .0181598{col 37}{space 1}   -0.26{col 46}{space 3}0.795{col 54}{space 4}-.0403123{col 67}{space 3} .0308727
{txt}annual_ch_~c {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .3326584{col 26}{space 2} .2160373{col 37}{space 1}    1.54{col 46}{space 3}0.124{col 54}{space 4}-.0907669{col 67}{space 3} .7560837
{txt}return_elect {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 7.369546{col 26}{space 2} 3.407776{col 37}{space 1}    2.16{col 46}{space 3}0.031{col 54}{space 4} .6904274{col 67}{space 3} 14.04867
{txt}{space 7}_cons {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-7.958958{col 26}{space 2} 3.168157{col 37}{space 1}   -2.51{col 46}{space 3}0.012{col 54}{space 4}-14.16843{col 67}{space 3}-1.749484
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. predict pr_sbi 
{txt}(option pr assumed; Pr(no_conf_dummy))
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. foreach i of varlist surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt ts_challenge no_challenge annual_ch_rgdppc {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.         gen z_`i' = (1 - pr_sbi) * `i'
{txt}  3{com}. {c )-}
{txt}(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. foreach j of varlist surplus minority gparties ciep_perc ts_govt annual_ch_rgdppc eff_par {c -(}
{txt}  2{com}.         gen y_`j' = pr_sbi * `j'
{txt}  3{com}. {c )-}
{txt}(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(173 missing values generated)
(184 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. di "$S_TIME"
{res}11:11:43
{txt}
{com}. bootstrap r(surplus) r(minority) r(gparties) r(ciep_perc) r(ts_govt) r(ts_challenge) r(no_challenge) r(annual_ch_rgdppc_F) r(surplus_P) r(minority_P) r(gparties_P) r(ciep_perc_P) r(ts_govt_P) r(annual_ch_rgdppc_P) r(eff_par), reps(1000) dots: sbi3, seed(648)
{txt}(running sbi3 on estimation sample)

Bootstrap replications ({res}1000{txt})
{hline 4}{c +}{hline 3} 1 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 2 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 3 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 4 {hline 3}{c +}{hline 3} 5 
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..................................................  1000
{res}
{txt}Bootstrap results{col 49}Number of obs{col 68}= {res}     9820
{txt}{col 49}Replications{col 68}= {res}     1000
{p2colset 7 17 21 2}{...}

{txt}{p2col :command:}sbi3, seed(648) {p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_1:}{res:r(surplus)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_2:}{res:r(minority)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_3:}{res:r(gparties)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_4:}{res:r(ciep_perc)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_5:}{res:r(ts_govt)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_6:}{res:r(ts_challenge)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_7:}{res:r(no_challenge)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_8:}{res:r(annual_ch_rgdppc_F)}{p_end}
{p2colset 9 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_9:}{res:r(surplus_P)}{p_end}
{p2colset 8 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_10:}{res:r(minority_P)}{p_end}
{p2colset 8 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_11:}{res:r(gparties_P)}{p_end}
{p2colset 8 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_12:}{res:r(ciep_perc_P)}{p_end}
{p2colset 8 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_13:}{res:r(ts_govt_P)}{p_end}
{p2colset 8 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_14:}{res:r(annual_ch_rgdppc_P)}{p_end}
{p2colset 8 17 21 2}{...}
{p2col :_bs_15:}{res:r(eff_par)}{p_end}

{res}{txt}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 14}{c |}   Observed{col 26}   Bootstrap{col 54}         Norm{col 67}al-based
{col 14}{c |}      Coef.{col 26}   Std. Err.{col 38}      z{col 46}   P>|z|{col 54}     [95% Con{col 67}f. Interval]
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 7}_bs_1 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .6046478{col 26}{space 2} .2262336{col 37}{space 1}    2.67{col 46}{space 3}0.008{col 54}{space 4}  .161238{col 67}{space 3} 1.048058
{txt}{space 7}_bs_2 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .5226401{col 26}{space 2} .2146583{col 37}{space 1}    2.43{col 46}{space 3}0.015{col 54}{space 4} .1019175{col 67}{space 3} .9433626
{txt}{space 7}_bs_3 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1508038{col 26}{space 2} .0500578{col 37}{space 1}   -3.01{col 46}{space 3}0.003{col 54}{space 4}-.2489153{col 67}{space 3}-.0526924
{txt}{space 7}_bs_4 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-2.876853{col 26}{space 2} .1767631{col 37}{space 1}  -16.28{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-3.223302{col 67}{space 3}-2.530403
{txt}{space 7}_bs_5 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0562408{col 26}{space 2} .0053439{col 37}{space 1}  -10.52{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0667146{col 67}{space 3}-.0457669
{txt}{space 7}_bs_6 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0192334{col 26}{space 2} .0043483{col 37}{space 1}   -4.42{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4}-.0277558{col 67}{space 3}-.0107109
{txt}{space 7}_bs_7 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .0202091{col 26}{space 2} .0032771{col 37}{space 1}    6.17{col 46}{space 3}0.000{col 54}{space 4} .0137862{col 67}{space 3} .0266321
{txt}{space 7}_bs_8 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0850778{col 26}{space 2} .0254873{col 37}{space 1}   -3.34{col 46}{space 3}0.001{col 54}{space 4}-.1350321{col 67}{space 3}-.0351236
{txt}{space 7}_bs_9 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 5.512109{col 26}{space 2} 7.116347{col 37}{space 1}    0.77{col 46}{space 3}0.439{col 54}{space 4}-8.435675{col 67}{space 3} 19.45989
{txt}{space 6}_bs_10 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} 9.114396{col 26}{space 2} 4.525065{col 37}{space 1}    2.01{col 46}{space 3}0.044{col 54}{space 4} .2454313{col 67}{space 3} 17.98336
{txt}{space 6}_bs_11 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-1.504748{col 26}{space 2}  4.61406{col 37}{space 1}   -0.33{col 46}{space 3}0.744{col 54}{space 4}-10.54814{col 67}{space 3} 7.538643
{txt}{space 6}_bs_12 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2} .8993876{col 26}{space 2} 3.419558{col 37}{space 1}    0.26{col 46}{space 3}0.793{col 54}{space 4}-5.802823{col 67}{space 3} 7.601598
{txt}{space 6}_bs_13 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.0280353{col 26}{space 2} .0751404{col 37}{space 1}   -0.37{col 46}{space 3}0.709{col 54}{space 4}-.1753077{col 67}{space 3} .1192372
{txt}{space 6}_bs_14 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-.1797067{col 26}{space 2} .3676428{col 37}{space 1}   -0.49{col 46}{space 3}0.625{col 54}{space 4}-.9002734{col 67}{space 3} .5408601
{txt}{space 6}_bs_15 {c |}{col 14}{res}{space 2}-4.120541{col 26}{space 2}  2.21364{col 37}{space 1}   -1.86{col 46}{space 3}0.063{col 54}{space 4}-8.459196{col 67}{space 3} .2181136
{txt}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. di "$S_TIME"
{res}11:14:07
{txt}
{com}. 
. pwcorr z_surplus z_minority z_gparties z_ciep_perc z_ts_govt z_ts_challenge z_no_challenge z_annual_ch_rgdppc y_surplus y_minority y_gparties y_ciep_perc y_ts_govt y_annual_ch_rgdppc y_eff_par if e(sample)

             {txt}{c |} z_surp~s z_mino~y z_gpar~s z_ciep~c z_ts_g~t z_ts_c~e z_no_c~e
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
   z_surplus {c |} {res}  1.0000 
  {txt}z_minority {c |} {res} -0.2089   1.0000 
  {txt}z_gparties {c |} {res}  0.5838  -0.1406   1.0000 
 {txt}z_ciep_perc {c |} {res} -0.0063   0.0407   0.0465   1.0000 
   {txt}z_ts_govt {c |} {res} -0.0712  -0.1342  -0.0170  -0.4753   1.0000 
{txt}z_ts_chall~e {c |} {res} -0.0314  -0.1499  -0.0309  -0.0157   0.0671   1.0000 
{txt}z_no_chall~e {c |} {res}  0.0963  -0.0629   0.2558   0.0095   0.0164  -0.3100   1.0000 
{txt}z_annual_c~c {c |} {res} -0.0018  -0.0304   0.0219  -0.0216   0.0126  -0.0212  -0.0432 
   {txt}y_surplus {c |} {res}  0.3406  -0.0918  -0.0107  -0.1141  -0.0803  -0.0826   0.0091 
  {txt}y_minority {c |} {res} -0.1361   0.3458  -0.2878  -0.2314  -0.1885  -0.1260  -0.1127 
  {txt}y_gparties {c |} {res}  0.0893   0.2370  -0.2329  -0.3145  -0.1866  -0.1489  -0.1180 
 {txt}y_ciep_perc {c |} {res} -0.0523   0.2797  -0.2984  -0.1415  -0.2308  -0.1327  -0.1203 
   {txt}y_ts_govt {c |} {res} -0.0490   0.1857  -0.2566  -0.3159  -0.0152  -0.1123  -0.0920 
{txt}y_annual_c~c {c |} {res} -0.0490   0.1354  -0.2438  -0.2363  -0.1606  -0.1081  -0.1217 
   {txt}y_eff_par {c |} {res} -0.0326   0.2995  -0.3020  -0.2972  -0.2045  -0.1357  -0.1311 

             {txt}{c |} z_annu~c y_surp~s y_mino~y y_gpar~s y_ciep~c y_ts_g~t y_annu~c
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 63}
z_annual_c~c {c |} {res}  1.0000 
   {txt}y_surplus {c |} {res}  0.0392   1.0000 
  {txt}y_minority {c |} {res} -0.0732  -0.0598   1.0000 
  {txt}y_gparties {c |} {res}  0.0909   0.5078   0.7325   1.0000 
 {txt}y_ciep_perc {c |} {res}  0.0192   0.1728   0.8408   0.7320   1.0000 
   {txt}y_ts_govt {c |} {res}  0.0126   0.2197   0.7159   0.7202   0.5359   1.0000 
{txt}y_annual_c~c {c |} {res}  0.1742   0.1700   0.6610   0.7997   0.6610   0.5995   1.0000 
   {txt}y_eff_par {c |} {res}  0.0239   0.2590   0.8991   0.9223   0.8283   0.7434   0.8006 

             {txt}{c |} y_eff_~r
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 9}
   y_eff_par {c |} {res}  1.0000 
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. log close
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}C:\Users\williamslaro\Documents\Research\Projects\Dissertation\TeX\Article Submissions\Legislative Success\Summer 2013\PSR&M\Final Version\Complete Replication\Williams PSRM.smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}closed on:  {res}22 Dec 2014, 11:14:08
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}